With respects to Isreal, I think they're going to keep bombing Gaza until they run out of bombs or jet fuel. It's a grim thought but it's the only way I see this ending, because Americans are already losing interest in talking about the conflict and once that happens our government is gonna ignore them the same way we ignored Yemen.

I think that process will play out fast enough that I think it will be a non-issue to the average voter. I think people are going to vote based on their gut feeling about the economy, and I don't think that's likely to change over the next year. People are going to think it's bad, and they're going to have a whole year of Republicans telling them that the economy was good during the Trump years.

People like us who remember that it was shit back then too will be in the minority, and the main thing that might prevent Trump from getting over the line will be people remembering how annoying things were in 2016-2020 when the president was in the news every single day. That, or an Act of God, like one of them dying suddenly, is the only thing I can see preventing a Trump win in 2024.