If trumps runs as republican i think he wins for sure, the current palestine crisis have caused a bunch of voter apathy in not just leftist but also muslim voters in important swing states and the only dem strategy to get people to vote is threating that Trump will kill/deport all muslims/lgbt+ people. Which to me is a losing strategy.

Now if republicans dont run trump i honestly dont see them winning any way, all their candidates are just weak.

I think dems have a good chance to win if they stick to the old plan to not run Biden for 2024. How ever i do think its posible for trump to win as an independent if the Republicans dont run him and dems go fir Bidem again.

I think the current Status quo will continue of US states passing increasing fascist policies and the US trying to do all it can to keep their empire together, i dont see Trump or Biden having that radical of a diference maybe Trump will escalate the China cold war and Biden would instead focus on trying to contain Russia, the Middleeast policy will be the same.