imo it's too early to tell. Americans have the memory of a goldfish, I don't think anything that happens before the final candidates for each party are chosen matters. Sure the dems have absolutely lost some people over Bombin' Biden's support of Israel, but I don't think that really matters to most american voters. It's looking like it'll be Biden vs Trump again, but without a bunch of residual goodwill towards biden and Trump has the advantage of not being on the defence this time (court cases notwithstanding but I don't know how much those will factor in. If anything he can spin it as being under attack by the entrenched powers etc etc). Right now if I was a betting man I'd say trump has the lead, but with still almost a year to go anything could happen.