Image is of the Te Pati Maori (Maori Party) cofounders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. They have 6 of the 123 seats in the New Zealand parliament.
Officially confirming that the Republican primaries were a gigantic waste of time for everybody involved, Trump has massively beat everybody else in Iowa, and will very obviously be the Republican candidate for 2024. Given the abysmal state of the US economy (for everybody who isn't in the top 1-10%, which is mainly what national statistics reflect when they aren't telling blatant falsehoods), it's more plausible than ever that Trump may indeed once again become President - though I personally refuse to predict one way or another due to how volatile politics and geopolitics currently are. Project 2025 is coming, folks - either as the official Republican governance program, or as what the Democrats will do in 2026 after the midterms, stating that they have no other choice and have to reach across the aisle as they are the Adults In The Room™.
In other news...
Late last year, New Zealand voted in a new and very right-wing government, composed of the center-right National Party, the libertarian ACT Party (ACT stands for the "Association of Consumers and Taxpayers", good lord), and the fascist New Zealand First party. By what I can tell, this was the well-trodden path of "Vaguely center-left party does neoliberal austerity and causes a recession and workers fucking hated it and voted in a different party out of desperation," though the flooding and cyclones did add challenges to Chris Hipkins' short reign after Jacinda Ardern resigned.
It's worth noting that Hipkins was at least fairly China-friendly, meeting up with Xi Jinping on a five-day visit in the summer. They still do the whole "We have concerns about human rights" thing, but of all the countries of the imperial core, New Zealand is - or, perhaps, was - one of the most amicable. In 2021, China was New Zealand's single largest trading partner, with a third of exports going to China (more than Australia, the US, Japan, and South Korea combined), and they receive 22% of their imports from China too, more than any other single country.
Christopher Luxon, the new Prime Minister and sentient thumb, has said that he is exploring a closer relationship with AUKUS:
Luxon said New Zealand was interested in becoming involved in AUKUS Pillar 2: a commitment between the three partners to develop and share advanced military capabilities, including artificial intelligence, electronic warfare and hypersonics.
“We’ll work our way through that over the course of next year as we understand it more and think about what the opportunities may be for us,” Luxon said. “AUKUS is a very important element in ensuring we’ve got stability and peace in the region.”
This is not to say that Hipkins wanted nothing to do with AUKUS or Western organizations aimed generally against China - in fact, pre election, "he was open to conversations about joining Pillar II of AUKUS". But the current government is pushing down on the accelerator pedal.
The left-wing Maori party, Te Pati Maori, has stated that they want New Zealand to remain non-aligned, as joining AUKUS would erode the sovereignty of the country:
As Maori we cannot allow our sovereignty to be determined by others, whether they are in Canberra or Washington. Aotearoa should not act as Pacific spy base in the wars of imperial powers. Joining AUKUS will severely undermine our country’s sovereignty, constitution, and ability to remain nuclear free. There is too much at stake for our government to make a commitment of this magnitude without a democratic process.
In general, the party leaders of Te Pati Maori want New Zealand to be the "Switzerland of the Pacific", which is perhaps not the greatest analogy given all the problems Switzerland had and has, but we understand the intended meaning of desiring neutrality.
The Country of the Week is New Zealand! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
So I'm reading the dissenting opinion of Ugandan Judge Sebutinde which you can find in full here.
WARNING: LONG EFFORT POST!
The primary arguement and summary is essentially that this is a "politcal and historical" issue that should be resolved by diplomacy amongst states and not brought before the court. Seemingly even when that's impossible:
As far as I can tell she doesn't address the fact that this case is being brought by South Africa, not a party within the conflict or materially tied to the outcome. She certainly doesn't indicate what their motives might be for doing so.
She does restate that there is a process for arguing for the prosecution of genocide under Gendocide Convention, but the implication her seems to basically be 'get this off my desk' or perhaps 'stop wasting my time until you have incontrovertible evidence'. I'd argue there's a bit of a problem with that, as I'll get to shortly, given her reaction to the evidence presented.
But first, some 'context' around October 7th.
I find some of the language here interesting. South Africa "claims" while Israel "reports". The language in the description of of the October 7th Hamas operation is full of sensationalist and emotionally charged language. "Invaded ... indescriminately ... committed massacres, mutilations, rapes and abductions of hundreds of Israeli civilians, including men, women and children". Notice how different the tone is here to when she summarises the effects of Israel's military operation in Gaza right afterward. It's also worth noting that far more sensationalised and emotional langugage describing the Hamas operation are not given any sort of 'Israel claims' caveat, only the vague statistics Israel offers and theories about ongoing abuse of hostages.
Perhaps that's due a difference in the evidence? So let's look at her response to that and her summaries...
The intervening paragraphs largely lay out the long claims by South Africa detailling the systematic way in which Israel has targeted civilian infrastructure, hit targets South Africa says are 'not military targets', and failed to punish or condemn genocidal statements and incitements from citizens, media, and government figures (I agree with all of that obviously). It then lays out in short Israel's counter claims that the war is only about Hamas and it does not target Palestinians at large (which is obviously bollocks, in my view).
And then we get to her judgement and opinion on whether the evidence supports claims of a potential genocide (not an actual ruling on one, keep in mind, the potential for a one with more evidence brought):
Now this is where I start just straight up calling bullshit. It's just a grab bag of Israeli propaganda lines.
Nothing matters before October 7th. Warnings of strikes when those strikes were often on shelters, refugee camps, hospitals, and neighbourhoods where people could not leave either due to other factors or because when they tried to we've seen they were often bombed or shot at by snipers and tanks even on the so called 'safe routes'. Israel has to bomb everyone and everything because they use civilians as human shields which if you're here I don't need to explain what a crock of shit that has always been.
If I was a genocidal state my reading from this would be simple; print some leaflets telling people to leave for deniability and then you can murder and carpet bomb and target civilians to your hearts content.
This absurd logical loophole gets even more ludicrous when she summarises her opinion of whether Israeli officials held any 'genocidal intent':
They only meant Hamas, is a ludicrous supposition in many, if not most cases.
Government officials, including some of those specifically named in the case, regularly refer to any and every Palestinian as being 'Hamas'. The even refer to non-Palestinians and foreign organisations as Hamas. While this has been going on members of the government have called protesters around the world, NGOs, lawyers, South African, the BBC, and the UN 'Hamas'.
You don't reference The Amalek - a biblical story about destroying an entire country and specifically all of it's inahbitents in revenge - if you're only talking about a specific "Palestinian Sunni Islamic political and military organization" as she described Hamas earlier.
There is no reference to or acknowledgement that historically these very same Israeli officials have used Hamas and 'terrorist' without any distinction between the provable or legal designations and just Palestinians or people Israel doesn't like in general.
And finally, for the absurd cherry on this shit-sundae of rationalisations, the fact that the *"official war policy of the Israeli government, as presented to the Court, contains no indicators of a genocidal intent." Has any official war policy of any government, accused of ethnic cleansing or genocide, since the introduction of the Genocide Convention in history, ever just said 'Yeah it's our official policy to do genocide'? That's like saying a serial killer can't have intended murder because his Facebook bio says 'pacifist' in it. Just absolutely fatuous.
Then we have the rationales for why the measures requested by South Africa cannot be 'linked' to the rights under the convention or approved in her view...
(Continued in next comment)
I think you were right with the "get this off my desk" bit, and everything else honestly stems from that. She decided—probably about 3 seconds after she saw that South Africa first filed the case—that she didn't want to have anything to do with it and would take any and every excuse not to think about or consider it and to get it dismissed or for it to lose. She probably just waited for Israel to make its oral argument and took notes that would go directly into her opinion, and basically ignored everything else. Probably during the two weeks or so the other justices were trying to come up with justification for the weakest possible verdict that might still lend their institution a modicum of legitimacy, she was off checking her Facebook messages and deciding what her spring restaurant itinerary would be.
Judges pretty universally suck, but this is next-tier, "I don't care and you can't make me do my job" shit. Kinda hilarious, TBH.
I agree, although I don't think I quite buy not wanting to touch it in general with the absurd rationale and apparently impossible standard for what constitutes potential 'genocidal' intent. Especially when taken together with the pontificating and very convieniently Israel-narrative spin at the end.
I'm not going to get all conspiracy theory about it, because I don't think it materially affects the result and and I also don't think you have to in order to come up with a possibility as to why she made such a shit case, but it's clear that Israel benefits from having at least one other judge that isn't literally Israeli break the unanimity for appearences and a propaganda line.
The Ugandan judge is closely related to the evangelical Christian movement in Uganda and went to elite missionary boarding schools for her education. She's likely one of those people that believe all Jews need to return to Israel for the second coming of Christ to happen, or some other end times rapture nonsense to do with Israel. Her arguments are all just fluff written after she already made up her mind on the decision.
Ahhh, now this is the sort of detail I was wondering about having gone through it all and it being so ridiculously contrived and flimsy.
Basically that the requirements of these measures - that the ICJ did pass, including stopping the killing of Palestians and not preventing aid or humanitarian relief, and both of which Israel and others immeadiately broke - are too broad and would force Israel to stop conducting its 'war'. And that since South Africa aren't a party in the war, they can't demand that. And since Hamas isn't a state, they can't be held to that legal standard of ceasing hostilities.
There's a couple of problems and some real circular logic here.
Most obvious is that she doesn't think Israel would ever cease hostilities, so therefore it's pointless introducing a measure telling them too. Perhaps it's just me but this is some real Twitter-reply-brained stuff. Since when does the fact that a subject would ignore the law mean it's pointless to apply it? Remember, her arguement is that this opinion and case is purely about the legal matter relating to the Genocide Convention, not too any kind of political or diplomatic considerations, as that's one of the reasons she doesn't think it should be before the ICJ at all. So how is, we could tell them, but they'd ignore us anyway not a political consideration rather than a legal one?
Then there's the issue of South Africa not being a party in the war and Hamas / Palestine (even she doesn't seem to differentiate here) not being party to the case. But what's the solution to this issue? Does South Africa have to enter the war, officially fighting on the side of Hamas to bring the case? Because if not the only inference can be that it must be the Palestinian 'state' that brings the case.
But there's a problem there too. Even setting aside the fact that it's not a state in the traditional sense (although the UN has broadly recognised it as an 'observer state' for legal purposes in the past and the 'Vienna Formula' has been used in the past as detailed in this article to bring cases before the ICJ). If Hamas does not represent and is a totally seperate and distinct entity from Palestine, as she argues for why Israel's operation is legitimate and not genocide, and therefore can't be held to cease hostilities, then how could Palestine ever launch a case under the Genocide Convention even if the ICJ allowed it to?
The answer in her view seems to be that it can't. That even if it was a traditional nation state argueing they were facing genocide, any defense or hostilities by a non-state actor would essentially invalidate the right to measures under the Genocide Convention.
Israel says they're terrorists, so their actions are legal. Because there are terrorists in the conflict, measures can't be implemented. Once again, a long way to say 'get this off my desk' I will say that she does at least, theoretically, conceed that some of Isreal's actions could be in violation of international law. But those don't neccissarily rise to meeting the Genocide Convention, so get it off her desk.
On measure three, "Take all measures within its power to prevent and punish the direct and public incitement to commit genocide in relation to members of the Palestinian group in the Gaza Strip":
By doing this! By using such a judgement to support escorting humanitarian aid into Gaza? By using such a judgement as the basis for an international blockade of Israel? More bizarre logic hung on a circular technicality.
So because measure three would only repeat the law as it is, she won't agree to it, instead refusing to sign off on a measure that states Israel should follow the law. This one is just
Apparently ditto for the fourth measure, because she doesn't see any genocidal intent:
And the fifth because it's already covered by international humanitarian law:
And again for the sub-measures:
With a note about one of them being too vauge:
And so it goes on...
Until it gets to the seventh measure, regarding preserving any evidence of acts that could constitute evidence:
So this one is specfic, is important, and does have supportive legal cases in the past, and would apply. Except that again Israel says it isn't doing genocide and dropped some leaflets so it doesn't.
But more than that, South Africa and the court does have the right t ask Israel to not destroy evidence against itself, but doesn't actually have to allow any kind of third party to be in a position to verify that. So you know, just promise yeah?
On the remaining measures:
Same as it ever was. South Africa isn't part of the war so can't ask for these. Israel's right defend itself will make things worse, but
Because Israel didn't come her today with a signed letter stating that they do in fact unequivocally intend to commit genocide I cannot rule on whether they might be likely to commit genocide.
She then goes on to recap in short the previously presented rationales for why the measures aren't warrented, which I'll only post the title because...
V. THE PROVISIONAL MEASURES INDICATED BY THE COURT ARE NOT WARRANTED
...buried in this section is the personal, not legal, opinion that of course needs to be on the record so that, oh say... pro-Israel media could use it to spin the results of a case they and she knew they'd lose perhaps?
Is Israel one of those unnamed "armed groups" or do innocent Palestinians, in the high thousands and far more credibly reported to have been subject to the kind of mistreatment, torture, and rape she seems to just take as a given that Israeli hostages were, not count in as part of that grave concern? Because "custody" sure is an interesting (and weasely) use of a phrase their when previously Hamas only 'kidnapped' even adult military personnel. Sounds like someone is trying to cover their ass just a little, without tipping off the Israeli audience they're playing to.
So South Africa can't meaningfully affect the situation and aren't really party to it, which is why she could disregard so many of the proposed measures. But she also just has to make the point that maybe South Africa is actually best mates with Hamas. (I wonder who brough that supposed relationship to the attention of the court in 'oral proceedings', meaning without supportive evidence? Who knows, it's just one of those things I guess). And therefore South Africa should get involved in politics and diplomacy (which is not her place our the court's to speak on remember) and tell their mates Hamas to just release the hostages and for nothing in return.
So if South Africa can't bring the case because it doesn't have any influence to the parties. But actually, maybe it does, and could just use it to achieve Israel's goals, because if it doesn't then it's responsible for the terrible crimes happening to the hostages too. Not in a legal sense or based on any evidence of course, just in her (not) political and (not ) diplomatic opinion.
Then I'm sorry, but you're either full of shit or totally fucking brainded, and I'm going with the former.
It's so complicated! I can't say what should happen (except where I just did). I just wish everyone could live in peace, but for now Israel... you crack on and don't forget to use my useful personal notes as spin to cover your asses while you do so.
So there we have it. Based upon her primary issuing all the way through being that her standards for genocidal intent are apparently thowing themselves on the courtroom floor and screaming "we're doing genocide, we're guilty, look at all these signed confessions" I don't see how she could ever rule for enforcing measures under the Genocide Convention realistically, even in other cases.
So the only real question I have left now is, why is she sitting on the court at all?
You may be aware of this, but the government Uganda has already disavowed the judge.
I am. That's partly what prompted me to read the whole bloody thing instead of just the various vauge summaries I've read on the result as a whole. I wondered why.
Based Ugandan W.
She should be sitting in
Palestine is a Schrödinger's state: both a state and not a state at the same time. Fortunately for liberals, this allows them to interpret things in the worst possible way every time. Is Israel "at war"? Palestine is essentially a state, so yes. Can Palestine have some kind of legal rights internationally? Palestine is not a state, so no. Does Israel have to listen to (Gazan) Palestinians in their political decisions? Gaza/Palestine is basically its own state, so no. Can Israel control the Rafah crossing with Egypt? Palestine is not a state and so it's Israel's border, so yes.