Image is of President Vladimir Putin, with his cook Prigozhin, though he is more famous for other things.
I'm assuming we all know what a "Russia" and a "Putin" is, so I'm skipping the background section.
On March 15th, Putin handily won the presidential election. This is perhaps one of the least surprising things to happen in the last couple years, and all claims and debates about electoral corruption are missing the point (in this particular election at least). The reason why Putin won is not fascist brainwashing or Putin having a high Persuasion/Intimidation DC, and it's not even really about the laws that make opposing the Ukraine War illegal. Wages are up significantly, unemployment is at record lows (for the post-USSR period, of course), as is poverty, and the ruble is about as stable as it could be given what the West has tried to do to it. The government has been forced to massively intervene in the economy to keep things afloat, buying up properties that have been ditched by foreign and domestic billionaires, though obviously Russia's wealthy are still plenty powerful. Inflation is up, but wages are comfortably outpacing it. And the Communist Party remains a relic of a bygone era, disconnected from the young people who might hypothetically propel a revolution.
Russia is still in the transition from switching to a Western-oriented export economy to an Eastern-oriented one. Nonetheless, Russia is now China's single largest oil supplier (unseating Saudi Arabia), delivering half of all their oil to China, and trade between the two countries has massively increased. Where Western brands have retreated from Russia (and not many actually have), more Russia-friendly corporations, and Russian businesses themselves, have filled the gaps.
By going through the news, I've seen a lot of economies that are not doing well at all. Most countries seem to be in that category. Either they have general growth but a deeply struggling populace, or the government is trying to keep the population afloat but running up huge debts in the process, or the government is failing on both counts. Russia is one of the few countries on the planet that I can confidently state is actually doing quite well objectively, which means it's doing extremely well relatively. Considering the Western economists regularly delivering portents of doom in early 2022, and salivating over how they were going to divide the country following the inevitable economic collapse, this is a hilarious state of affairs.
In the long term, their predictions may come true. It is entirely possible that a post-war Russia will slump, returning to neoliberal policies and continuing their nonsensical allergy to budget deficits. Russia might not be a mere gas station, but a substantial amount of the economy is made up of fossil fuel exports, which might be troublesome in a greener future, especially as China, their main oil market, is one of the few countries on the planet that seems serious about renewable/nuclear energy. And the limited labour force means that long-term growth is inherently limited without some creative measures, even with the potential influx of whatever remains of the population and territory that Russia seizes in Ukraine. Perhaps it is in this crucible of disillusionment and hardship, after seeing that good things are indeed possible if the government wishes them to be so, that a socialist Russia could rise again. But we aren't there yet, and the growth continues for now.
Apologies for the lack of updates (again!), I've been going through book titles again for the reading list (I've probably got a thousand or more to get through) and also trying to touch grass more. I'm not very good at balancing things out, I tend to do the hyperfocus-on-one-thing-until-it's-done approach.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Russia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
via Intel Slava so make of it what you will, but allegedly a photographer at Crocus City Hall took this picture of one of the suspects on March 7th in the venue.
Do you think it could be false flag? (Yes, I am still in the “everything is a psyop” gang)
It never quite made sense to me how the attackers could enter the building calmly, killed people, committed arson, then fled the scene on a car for almost 400km before they were caught.
Is the police response that slow?
However, if the attack had been pre-meditated from the inside, then they could do all this and then “pretend” to catch the attackers on the run.
Then you have all these photographs that were “conveniently” taken by some random photographer.
It makes more sense to be an inside job from Kremlin, no?
Souvenir picture photographers exist at basically every event in the world, sometimes you have to go through them when you get in line for the main event. There’s probably a million pictures of other people who were there. It’s not “convenient” it’s a standard picture taken by a guy that works there, very much not some “random photographer”.
There’s a lot of “could have” and “would have been able to” and not a lot of evidence.
I don’t see what’s so incredible about this. It’s quite possible to pull this off at any unsecured venue in the world. Nobody knows who they are in the moment, abandoning your guns and fleeing with the crowd isn’t some monumental task. Terrorists have been on the run for much longer than a few hours. Police aren’t going to be chasing phantom terrorists when they could still be inside the building, and immediately storming the premises isn’t how counterterrorism response works anywhere in the world.
The far less sophisticated Boston marathon bomber got away for much longer than these guys did. It’s not like the movies where you press a button and the computer immediately goes “terrorists located heading on Highway 1 out of the city”
No, it absolutely does not. Your argument hinges on the belief that everything is too perfect and nothing else.
I’m not saying it’s impossible that it was a false flag - but the evidence doesn’t support it and I take issue with your basis. As we are all stuck in the realm of speculation, the explanation that tracks the most is that American backed pansies carried out the attack.
March 7th… the day the US embassy put out their warning there is a terrorist scoping the place out?
I mean... yes? A patrol car could respond pretty quickly, but terrorist attacks require specialized units which take time to actually be put into action, and further time to actually figure out the situation, how many militants they're dealing with, and so on - just rushing guys in without a plan can very well make the situation worse, as the Russians themselves painfully learned at Beslan.
The simple reality is, there's no way for the state to actually ensure complete security in a massive metropolitan area without declaring martial law and deploying like, several army corps worth of cops or paramilitaries (which of course has political consequences, and besides, you could just suffer an attack somewhere else anyway). With this incident in particular, I also read reports that there were false shootings/bomb-threats being called in - you can essentially paralyze state security services that way, since they kind of have to respond, but there's no way for them to effectively respond to everything, and so the real attacks can slip through.
Determined terrorists will pretty much always be able to slip through the cracks eventually - it's just that, fortunately, contrary to GWOT-era propaganda, there actually aren't all that many well-equipped groups around to do stuff like that, and they're mostly fighting insurgencies in their own homelands rather than executing attacks in faraway capital cities.
Also, it took a long time compared to what? Due to most attacks being suicide bombings or even thr planes of 9/11 there aren't perpetrators to catch. The one I can think of is the Boston Bombings and it took them literal days to catch their suspects, despite the fact that one was on foot, barely trained, and had zero equipment or support.
I'm sorry, but On what do you even base this assumption? What purpose would this loss of life serve as opposed to something more symbolic? Russia doesn't need to justify actions in Ukraine when they're at war and if it was to create support for reaction against Ukraine / NATO (which they don't want to face off with in the latter case) they'd make it ironclad and obvious who that the perpetrators were agents of that state etc. And beyond that, if you are going to do a false flag you don't usually let the assets live and put them on the stand. I don't see anything that points towards some sort of inside job or false flag.
If you actually read the reporting the attack wasn't long. They fired into crowds and then started a fire with molotovs, which was what caused many of the deaths apparently. They then escaped the building amongst the crowds of fleeing people.
So now you have an attack where thousands of people are fleeing, things like security cameras to identify the suspects are in a burning building, and an attack MO that isn't necessarily what you'd expect (they may have even been assuming the fires were started by suicide bombers for example).
I was reading reporting that the Spetsnaz/GRU headquarters where their militarized emergency response team was for these situations is about 30 minutes away, and that's assuming a unit is geared up and has enough information to make a complete response plan on the way.
Then there's the fact that you have shakey Intel of the suspects, who may have explosives and automatic weapons, possibly still suicide vests etc and it's probably smart not to try and get into a shooting war with them it a busy urban environment even if you can definitely identify and locate them quickly enough. There's a reason you see in the photos and footage of their capture that it's on a rural wooded road. The reporting is clear that once they'd identified them and the car intelligence tracked it while a unit set up and ambush in a remote place so that if it went bad or they decided to detonate themselves or similar the damage would be limited to the suspects and maybe the capture team.
Ukraine/US/NATO is still the most likely scenario given the current info, but I don't think it's time to entirely rule out false flag, either. There's still lots of weird stuff going on, like how quickly all of this info came out and Tajikistan denying that the men who Russia said did the shooting are who the claim to be.
I don’t disagree, but the more I think about it, the more I am leaning towards false flag.
I think Russia is doing false flag to purge Muslim “illegal immigrants” so they can proceed with building their white Christian fascist ethnostate. We’ll see how this turns out.
They would just do another Chechen bombing if they wanted that. Heck if they are so inclined they would've done so sooner after or during the second Chechen war. As it stands I think Russia does not want to piss of its Muslim population, plus Russians don't really have a relationship with Muslims as "illegal immigrants", they have a huge Muslim population natively with the Caucases, and even more from generations of Central Asian "immigrants" as in Russian imperial citizens and Soviet citizens who moved to Russia. Islamophobic sentiment there is a different form than say France.
A Christian white ethno state? That is really silly.
"White passing" Russians mostly live in western Russia. More than half of the country by land mass isn't white or so they'd have to force "white Christians" to live in places like Siberia and Chechnya and expel/genocide the local populations. These are places where people generally don't want to live as it is.
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