Genuinely curious. I keep thinking “it can’t get much worse without some kind of mass uprising” but the ability of the general population of Western states to just soak up suffering seems endless. Do you think we will actually see mass movements in the next decade or two? Or just slowly lurch into a void of ever-shittier liberalism?

By the West I mean like. Western Europe and the Anglosphere I guess.

  • axont [she/her, comrade/them]
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    edit-2
    5 months ago

    Maybe I have a lack of imagination but I can only see it happening in the west as an escalating series of riots. Giant riots, police response, bigger riot the next year. Then at a certain point after the riots become unmanageable, or enough cops/soldiers begin to mutiny, maybe something coherent can begin to get formed. Or it could be a pocket of leftists do something that would otherwise get called opportunistic and end up basically usurping a series of riots that was initially focused on something else.

    That's gonna be part of the rub, because a lot of successful leftist revolutions were initially popular movements for something other than socialism. Russia was an anti-war movement, Vietnam was decolonization, and Cuba was also decolonization and a call for land reform. In fact, very early on in the Cuban revolution, in the 40s and 50s, many future leaders would vocally disavow communism/socialism and instead try to pull the focus more on national self-determination. There's that famous meeting in 1959 where Castro met then vice-president Richard Nixon. Castro outright said "i'm not a communist" to Nixon since Castro at that point was attempting to court the support of the US in overthrowing Batista.

    That's the only way I see it happening in the west as well, just way more disorganized. Ok I don't think I'm explaining this well

    For lack of a better word I can only see it happening in a way we'd call slimy, or misleading, or I don't know what to call it. Someone else probably has better vocabulary. I don't mean to imply Castro or the Cuban revolutionaries were misleading the people. They were heroes and should be regarded as such. What I mean is that leftist organizing has to be attached to pre-existing popular sentiment to get anywhere and there's trial/error in regards to how it gets attached. Or the strategies undertaken. It's not a garden party. Revolutionaries are gonna do unsavory things. A communist movement may hide its intentions, maybe make promises it can't fulfill in order to gain traction. Lie, cheat, steal. Exaggerate. Make up stories. Scapegoat. That kind of thing I see happening in a revolutionary context.

    all that said the western country I have the most hope for is France. That's completely vibes based and I have no formal reason to say that. I feel the strings of fate shivering in the air. There's so much directed tension in France that's unlike anything else I feel in other western, wealthy countries.

    • Moss [they/them]
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      5 months ago

      I was gonna say I can't imagine it being France because of how fascist and imperialist the state is, then I remembered what the German state is and the difference in action between German and French leftists. Yeah France seems like a decent bet, it seems like the contradictions there heighten every day