Genuinely curious. I keep thinking “it can’t get much worse without some kind of mass uprising” but the ability of the general population of Western states to just soak up suffering seems endless. Do you think we will actually see mass movements in the next decade or two? Or just slowly lurch into a void of ever-shittier liberalism?
By the West I mean like. Western Europe and the Anglosphere I guess.
The view that there will not be a revolution in our lifetimes is the most harmful commonly held belief among the western left. If we divide the revolutionary conditions into the subjective and the objective, it is not the objective ones that are lacking. We have a climate crisis with no solution under capitalism, increasing political illegitimacy, and the decay of the global monopoly of power. What we are missing is the subjective part, the party that offers an alternative. If we believe there will not be a revolution, this party will never have the vitality to direct the masses, and will instead waste all the revolutionary potential, betraying the masses.
This is true, doomerism is truly counter revolutionary.
There is always revolutionary potential, but to turn that potential energy into kinetic energy is what you’re supposed to do as a communist.
With climate change the way it is there is a 100% certainty of revolutionary conditions. Some countries will go fascist, some will be won by the left.
You need to look at the weather happening in the phillipines right now to understand this. 45 celsius.
Parts of the world are to become uninhabitable. This is a fact. Hundreds of millions of people are to be displaced.
The fascism that will descend to try to prevent this will not succeed. The scale of it is too much. They will not be able to control it. They will try but they will fail.
Revolutions under those conditions are inevitable. Shit is going to get really really crazy. What we are going to see is entirely without precedent.
Revolution will occur not because of popular support for socialism but out of societal collapse amid turmoil and unrest.
This is the right answer. Several of the the comments in this thread have correctly identified climate change as an important factor, but it seems like they aren't recognizing how much of an accelerant for revolution it really is. Maybe revolution is not the perfect term here so much as radical and extreme political change because as you say, it can go in the direction of communism or fascism depending as always on the material conditions. Either way, the current status quo for every nation on the planet doesn't have long left, and its death is going to happen faster and faster in the coming few decades.
We need to look at the police states and fascism that will descend and consider what reaction to that will occur as well. Fascism will descend but as soon as people get a taste of it the reaction against it will be very quickly. Look at the UK and the tories as a snapshot of this. There is categorically no support for the tories, it has collapsed. The timing of this collapse is extremely unfortunate with the state of the labour party but it goes to show how quickly things can turn when people get a taste of their lives getting worse.
Right now I hear shit loads of people that are vaguely reactionary, like the Brexit voters, all saying they intend to vote for Galloway's party even if it obviously won't win. Obviously voting is not going to get us anywhere but as an indication of leftists riding the waves of discontent and vanguarding even among reactionaries I think he's a solid example even if I have significant distaste for his messaging.
When the collapse happens and revolutionary conditions descend this kind of weird reactionary crowds agreeing with the left is going to happen as well.
Well said. The imperialists have gone a good job of insulating themselves from the harshest effects of climate crisis so far but that can’t last forever.
Even they understand this. They're setting up bunkers to retreat to because they understand the inevitability of this turmoil themselves.
You know these guys have a great plan when they start talking about the mineshaft gap
If you really think about it, their plan is basically the Fallout games. Maybe without nukes, but it's basically to hide in a Vault and figure out how to take control again afterwards.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/
I mean, maybe PR-wise. Expect Katrina!New Orleans or Texas-tier disaster management from the whole country.
Before the massive BLM protests, riots, and rebellions, I thought it was impossible. That occurred during the worst period of the pandemic and I think people are in a pretty different mental context now and basically forgot about it. Not a lot came from it but it shows people do have a capacity to get mad and fight for things.
yeah, this is where I'm at too. The spontaneous bubbling anger that can manifest should be evident that things can happen. Problem is that I think capitalist subjects aren't primed yet in taking out their anger in structured ways. Or maybe they won't ever be. A leftist revolution among the imperial core is gonna look like a yearly tradition of riots that increase in frequency and intensity. Eruptions of discontent that become more difficult to manage by the state, until something breaks. Either the rioters figure out what they're doing, or the state recedes and focuses its attention elsewhere.
I don't know. We'll see. The spirit is definitely there. People burned down a police station and were cheering. This image:
should be the response to anyone who suggests nothing can ever happen in the west. It can, it's just not surface yet. The spirit doesn't know where to go.Im not of the belief that nothing can happen. A police station burning down is not getting us any closer to a revolution led by the masses. We have always known people have it in them to fight back. It's can we organize enough of them and can we do it before they kill us all first that is still the problem.
Common opinion has been shown from history to change quite rapidly once shit goes down for real. We are already looking at one imperialist war on European grounds that every western state is ghoulishly continuing, and a full blown genocide in the Middle East. WW3 is looming just around the corner, and nothing is more radicalising than being sent to the meat grinder for some capitalist's pockets. Not only that, but it also unites the people more that ever and gives them arms that they can turn against the capitalists if it comes to it.
Things aren't looking hopeful, but they sure weren't looking hopeful either before the October Revolution succeeded in a place that was not even fully past feudalism yet. Imperialism is even worse now and more necessary to end than in the previous century, and we now have way more theory and historical experience from existing socialism that future attempts will likely be much more successful.
It will probably be a hard and bloody period of wars and fascism until then, but I believe that we will see huge revolutions in our lifetime if we survive until then.
100% of chuds, 98% of liberals the entire media apparatuses and every single member of government would unite to stop anything even remotely resembling that
The only way anything gets better in this country is if we hit rock bottom of total societal collapse and build something from the ashes.
Like that’s not clearly going to happen. Also, most people just follow what’s popular. If we can organize well momentum will build on itself as normies realize we can work for their interests.
The protests are a pretty good counterpoint.
Protests have been on the right side of history and built momentum from civil rights to suffrage to anti war protests to climate protests to today.
And even on the supposedly left of american center reddit every single one of them is using the exact same talking points that was used against every single other one of those protests.
Columbia is a liberal college in one of the most liberal states with a liberal governor in a liberal city. It looked like the cops were ready to invade a small nation.
And the overwhelming opinion is against the protestors pretty much everywhere other than here and tik tok.
I know that, but people keep waking up about Palestine and other things. Conditions are becoming more revolutionary and the committed reactionaries are largely cowards.
What type of liberalism is expecting a revolution to sprout from the soil when it's been salted for the last 200 years.
I have. Relying on chuds or liberals to fight the revolution for you is exactly how a revolution gets coopted and all the socialist get rewarded for their hard work with a shallow grave. Its what liberals did when they were certain that comey was going to take down Trump for them.
And then meuller.
And then garland.
There are very few ways to make me detest you more than to tell me to learn history when I'm very familiar with history and also very familiar with the fact that 90% of Americans violently oppose any real progress.
I mean seriously you're trying to lecture me on not knowing how histpry works when your argument is that historical and material conditions don't make a difference when it comes to starting revolutions.
It's more about ego. That you somehow know the exact formula needed for revolution when historically revolution has happened at the most unexpected times.
The comic of different passengers on the train thinking about collapse
I'm absolutely not hoping for it or looking forward to it but that's what it would take.
And as long as liberals and chuds have somebody to punch down at that's what they'll do.
So until it all comes crashing down and everybody's at zero you aren't going to convince more than 5% of Americans to willingly sacrifice to benefit others.
I think more people have to be hungry, literally, underfed, fearful of where they are going to get food and of where they are going to live. It's so easy to ignore endless atrocities if your family is okay, you have food and you can easily turn away from the violence. Many people in the US have never experienced anything like what has driven most revolutionaries historically.
I think with the right vanguard things could happen though, most people know things are fucked regardless of politics. I have seen a lot of comments on reddit and elsewhere like 'I would fight in a revolution, I'm not gonna start it though'.
I don't have a lot of hope for the West, but I can at least focus my efforts on weakening its violent grip on the rest of the world so that other revolutions can succeed.
Exactly. And in turn, revolutions in the periphery weakens the core and increases the possibility of eventual revolution there as well. All of these systems have built-in feedback loops that need to be considered and exploited.
It's possible. Nobody thought the home of the revolution would be built in the Russian empire after all.
I swing from a soft "no" to "no fucking way." There's a reason we're so propagandized: it works. Most "revolutionaries" think we need more liberal flavored capitalism, not less. We're atomized and designed to hate each other. The idea of people coming together just fucking baffles me. I don't see how. Look how easy BLM was dismissed, condemned then co-opted and turned around. Same with defunding the police. Same with anything.
Yeah. Not gonna happen. Not to be grim. I just don't see how.
See what happens when a strong mass movement appears during a democratic presidency so they can’t co-opt.
“Before a revolution happens it is perceived as impossible; after it happens, it is seen as having been inevitable.” -Rosa Luxemburg
No amount of starvation can educate people. Look at all the poor countries that haven't had communist revolutions when there was a complete breakdown of society and economy
I think what you're failing to take into consideration is that all those poor countries that haven't had communist revolutions have had the weight of the most powerful empire ever to exist on earth bearing down on them and doing its best to ensure any communist revolution was strangled in its crib. Yet despite this, some of them succeeded in communist revolutions anyway! The lack of revolutions in the periphery since the advent of capitalism is not evidence for the lack of revolutionary potential in a starving population. Saying it is is just not taking all the material conditions into account.
No amount of starvation can educate people.
Ppl dont need education to do a revolution. It will happen with or without education if you starve a population.
Look at all the poor countries that haven't had communist revolutions
You cant have a communist revolution just because thats your intention. Id even say that a society that hasnt reached industrial level of production at least cant build communism to its full potential
Ppl dont need education to do a revolution. It will happen with or without education if you starve a population.
They do for a socialist one. Otherwise it'll end up being fascism or a revolution without socialist character
Not true. You may need an educated vanguard party, but not an educated population. Even then, the vanguard need only be "educated" in legitimate theory. An "educated population" that has been educated mostly in capitalist propaganda like in the US is a hindrance to revolution, definitely not a requirement. "Uneducated" people aren't dumb, they can still recognize inequality and the injustice of not being able to eat while a small elite wallows in the wealth made off their labor.
The masses still need to be educated to the extent that they will actually follow and trust and dedicate themselves to the vanguard party leading the revolution
Y'all make it sound sooooo easy haha
No one is making anything "sound easy," we're just pointing out the fact that education is not and never has been a prerequisite for revolution. It's ignorant, ahistortical, and bordering on chauvinism to say that's the reason "all the poor countries" haven't had revolutions. It's ridiculous on it's face when you actually look at history and see that almost all successful revolutions that became AES countries did so with the support and participation of their largely uneducated populous. Or no, I guess the masses of peasantry in rural China all went to uni otherwise the Chinese revolution could never have happened. 🙄
Not sure what your point is.
Vietnam developed a revolutionary and educated mass during occupation, achieved victory and independence, and still failed to achieve socialism despite attempting it because we live in a globalized economy and they had to choose between theoretical purity and letting the demons back in so people don’t starve to death after already facing massive deaths from war. It doesn’t matter how educated you are when the world is designed to strangle you.
I once wrote a very silly thing that I called something like "global revolution in one year", where, as the title would suggest, in the span of a mere 365 days the entire capitalist system collapsed across the entire world. Trying to imagine how something could go from its present state to a completely opposite state in the span of a year or a decade can be a great way to develop a feeling of optimism and control, as well as spontaneous creativity, that makes someone a good revolutionary.
Obviously I don't actually believe that we will witness the complete collapse of capitalism across the entire globe and the establishment of die sozialistische Weltrepublik in the span of only 365 days. It's probably going to happen piece by piece over the course of, as you say, 20 years.
Incidentally, the last bourgeois republic to fall was Australia, more specifically the Whadjuk territory in and around Perth.
There are some particular things that I want to highlight:
- Revolution happens when people are materially poor enough to desire change but materially rich enough to be able to effect it. For countries in the imperial periphery, they need the wealth and stability for successful revolutions; for countries in the imperial core, all that is needed is a little desperation, frankly probably less desperation than most people think. In the Western revolutionaries of today we see the contradictions that will create the Western revolutionaries of the future — the number will only increase.
- Revolution outside the West and the generally growing geopolitical influence of Latin America, Africa, and the countries of Asia, creates the conditions for revolution within the West: when the West cannot rely on cheap raw materials from the "poor countries", it must rely on its own resources; when the West cannot rely on these countries' cheap manufacturing, either, it must rely on its own manufacturing. This will heighten class conflict while also building a stronger and more socially connected proletariat. Note that even just revolution in a few countries can be enough to critically disrupt imperialism's supply chains — this is why the story focuses so much on revolutionary movements in countries near maritime chokepoints.
- There are growing divisions within the ruling class. It always happens that when the ruling class has its attention divided by infighting, that it is easier to fight against it, as well as that the common people are more motivated to fight against it, as it is the common people who must bear the brunt of capitalists' infighting. If people would already risk their lives in a pointless war for their masters, one can imagine that to risk one's life in a meaningful war for themselves would suddenly feel much more appealing. Chen Sheng and Wu Guang took up arms because the alternative was execution, after all.
- Capitalism cannot survive pandemics and climate change. In the course of the past year Eastern Norway was rammed both by the extreme weather "Hans" as well as by the infamous snow chaos of January 17th and the ensuing power outages. It is in these types of natural disasters that people get a glimpse of life outside of capitalism, where the institutions of state fail to provide for them and people have to rely on the kindness of family, friends, and even strangers. Where people develop new skills and gain new knowledge as they overcome unexpected obstacles, and where people simply don't get to work and supply chains break down.
- Keep your eyes on Scotland and other independence movements within Western Europe and the Anglosphere. For that matter keep your eyes on all ethnic minorities in Western countries, and to the peripheral and semi-peripheral countries right next to the imperial core — we can certainly imagine Western Europe growing more economically reliant on Russia as American influence dwindles.
- Those we might label as "white" do not play a passive role. Even when the "treat machine" is still functional, some number will participate in strikes and protests as well as in sabotage and funding et cetera which aid the revolutionary cause. The natural response among white Americans is to emigrate when the going gets tough and the opportunity arises; in the story, those whites who had to (or chose to) stay on Turtle Island established "dissileagues", which would eventually negotiate effective mergers with various Indigenous governments to create "leagues of commons" as one component of dual power.
I also recently wrote a different silly thing where in the span of a year or two, the region where I live (I'm talking an area with ca. 20,000 people, 200 km2) would experience a socialist insurgency, the building of dual power, and would eventually declare independence outright. Once again, I obviously don't believe that this will actually happen, but the premise of that story is basically that one fairly minor grievance can quickly escalate into many very major grievances, if neither side wishes to give in, and it ultimately took only a handful of people making a few easy and rational decisions to cause that to happen.
And it definitely felt different to imagine "Western revolution" not as this grand abstract thing, but imagining how it might play out in these hyper-specific locations that I'm very intimately familiar with, places that I've seen hundreds or thousands of times, and tracing how average people's grievances and interests and how far they'll go to address them shift bit by bit through experience.
Edit: Why do I always confuse the words "insurrection" and "insurgency"? I need to get better sleep.
The notes app on my phone
Edit: Well, "revolution in one year" was written in the notes app on my phone, the thing about my home region declaring independence was written in LibreOffice on my laptop. The point in any case is that these things are kind of embarrassing to share, and in the case of the story about my home region, maybe a bit too revealing of where I live, too.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
In the west, collapse conditions are far more likely than revolution, but who knows
In the rest of the world however I see nothing but revolutions coming
Honestly the general trajectory of the west seems to be flowing along the path of least resistance, and that path apparently leads to a de facto military takeover of most western countries, in 15 years I wouldn't be surprised if soldiers with rifles are manning checkpoints on every major road, the future of the west seems to be the former green zone in occupied Baghdad, which thinking about it has a kind of historical symmetry to it
Honestly, my biggest concern is the right wing brainwashed masses waking up like sleeper agents in the event of any form of unrest, let alone uprising.
Not talking about Kyle Rittenhouse types exclusively either. I'm talking about the American landlord who saw on Fox that Palestinians aren't people so a switch flipped in his head and he went on to murder the a kid who he used to play with. A kid who was running up to him for a hug.
Until the lead poisoned largely pass from this earth, their brain worms are going to be an obstacle.
I guess we could just start a protracted people's war until they all die from complications of taking horse de-wormer to cure COVID. Sounds like a cool hang.
before covid i would have said no, but the rate at which things are deteriorating has accelerated massively in the last five or so years.
the critical indicator imo is food prices compared to incomes. if a critical mass of people can no longer afford to eat, even the most severe reaction won't be able to maintain order. it really does come down to when the capitalists are stupid enough to let enough people starve
Death to America
When people start starving they're just gonna go shoot their neighbor.
And if it's a chud shooting anybody left of George Bush they'll get away with it.
only if the left in america (such as it is) continues to not organize at all. but that's not necessarily a given, especially considering that the conditions and events that cause widespread hunger will be the very same conditions and events that make organizing easier
Death to America
