I thought the humiliation of 2016 should have made him crawl under a rock to hide forever
Huh? Silver was literally the only "serious" prognosticator who forecasted a possible upset; everyone else thought it was a no contest (Princeton gave it like a 99.5% "Bayesian" prediction for Hillary).
"Bayesian" in contemporary use means "make up numbers and apply those made up numbers until whatever result you want to happen looks likely, even inevitable."
it may have the Princeton Consortium guy. i think he said he'd literally eat his shoes, or a pile of bugs or something if he lost -- i'm sure he at least ate rhetorical crow and had to follow up with a mea culpa post.
Huh? Silver was literally the only "serious" prognosticator who forecasted a possible upset; everyone else thought it was a no contest (Princeton gave it like a 99.5% "Bayesian" prediction for Hillary).
"Bayesian" in contemporary use means "make up numbers and apply those made up numbers until whatever result you want to happen looks likely, even inevitable."
Am I misremembering? Who was the statistician who predicted a slam dunk for Clinton and then later released a post about why he got it wrong?
it may have the Princeton Consortium guy. i think he said he'd literally eat his shoes, or a pile of bugs or something if he lost -- i'm sure he at least ate rhetorical crow and had to follow up with a mea culpa post.