I'm sure Xi is beyond having his feelings hurt by Biden, but just look at Bilken's reaction lmao.

Inviting a head of state to your country to publicly insult them is unacceptable anywhere, so this is only going to further tarnish the shitty reputation of American diplomacy.

    • Awoo [she/her]
      ·
      1 year ago

      You don't need to do large provocations for this cascade to occur. Freedom of navigation operations have the potential to spiral out of control extremely easily.

      This video poses this scenario very well: https://youtu.be/vJXWJ-Px5tU

      I don't necessarily agree with all the interpretations of effectiveness of weapons/missiles etc in this video, but as an example of how officers in charge of each of these assets will act independently on incomplete information about the situation it's a very realistic example of how this shit could cascade on a complete misunderstanding. The particularly interesting part of this begins at 6:00 but the lead up is important in establishing the list of assets in the region in the scenario. An emergency phonecall in this situation would have resulted in the US knowing "this is a mock attack as an exercise, not a real one" and the spark that lights this cascade of events would not have happened. But without that phonecall, the training exercise jets are shot down, and what follows is a cascade of events leading to devastating losses of both sides as every existing asset interprets the nearby events as existential and releases their full capabilities. Whether the interpretations of the effect of these jets/missiles are correct is not really relevant compared to understanding how this cascade could easily happen from routine exercises that happen regularly without a line of communication.

      • AlyxMS [he/him]
        ·
        1 year ago

        Can't believe I watched the whole thing, god the entire video is so... masturbatory.

        • PL-15, literally the newest A2A missile ever fielded and a significant kinematic advantage over AIM-120. Nope, can barely score two hits with a 20 missile salvo. Also always launched from max range to minimize chance to hit I guess.

        • PL-12, estimated to be equal to AIM-120C. Scored like 1 hit after a 100 something missile salvo.

        • AIM-120D, don't ever misses, downs dozens upon dozens of aircrafts while barely taking losses. "Once again proves the united states's advantage in missile technology".

        • Evasive maneuvers against modern A2A missiles: If the F-18s do it, it always works, 98% effectiveness against anything. If the flankers do it, it never works. They might as well be flying straight, would have the same results.

        • Missile salvo of 30 sea skimming cruise missile toward a carrier: All intercepted, no problem.

        • A small salvo of Harpoons, pretty much the most obsolete ship to ship missile still in service, okay the 054A made a valiant effort but can't intercept them all. Also the CIWS can do nothing against a subsonic target.

        • DF-21D. From the late 2000s and highly experimental. Not perfected until DF-17 and 26 from recent years. Functions flawlessly at max range and we only lost the carrier due to this wunderwaffe.

        • Okay we lost but we are against overwhelming odds also we intentionally placed multiple handicaps on ourselves. And we still had an exchange ratio of like 1:50.

        • Everyone in comments: OMG this simulation is so accurate! But as a navy man here we would've never had those handicaps and we would've totally wreaked havoc on their obsolete military guys.

        This thing had the plot of a top gun movie but is presented like a simulation done to the last detail. Just... strange. Gives off a big "elite waffen SS against soviet human wave attacks" energy.

        • Awoo [she/her]
          ·
          1 year ago

          Yeah it's absolutely masturbatory, I did warn about the estimates being off. It's interesting in that it's a pretty fair estimate of how these assets might react in such a situation though.

        • JuryNullification [he/him]
          ·
          1 year ago

          Also the CIWS can do nothing against a subsonic target.

          Is this criticizing the video or a real life assessment?

          • AlyxMS [he/him]
            ·
            1 year ago

            The video of course. CIWS is literally built for those. I don't think it's simulated at all in the video. But once again I think the 054A only had a single one of them? So maybe it wouldn't have mattered much.

            • JuryNullification [he/him]
              ·
              1 year ago

              Thanks for the clarification, “ CIWS is literally built for those” was where I was coming from.

              Also, thanks to AlyxMS for summarizing the video