Assuming that the left gets its shit together before Homo sapiens goes extinct.
My vote goes to either the USA or France. Especially because the Paris Commune already happened. “Smeagol did it once...he can do it again!” Paris seems to have been packed with rioters 24/7 for several years. Not so different maybe from the American Midwest. The ruling class is investing heavily in police in both countries. It’s afraid!
I know this seems partly delusional of me and that there is far more hope in the Global South unifying and then strangling the imperial core from the outside. But still, gun to your head, pick an imperial core country and explain how and why it will fall first. Marx, after all, predicted that socialism would come first to those places that had progressed along capitalist development the most. (Yes, you are invited to explain how wrong I am about this.) The USA falling to socialism would probably cause the rest of the planet to fall the same way.
edit: my choices seem embarrassing now, thank you for enlightening me comrades.
texas froze over and the powerlines are melting in oregon. there isn't potable drinking water in parts of the midwest, and they didn't have gas on the seaboard. how much more of a collapse do you think we'll need?
Something that results in people losing their responsibilities. People have kids and other loved ones to care for which reduces their ability to say "fuck it", quit their job, and go overthrow the government.