On the one hand, we're seeing the consent manufactury kick into overdrive and a lot of state department goblins seem to be absolutely itching for a fresh round of meddling. Cuba as a client state would open the door to all manner of renewed imperial nightmares in the carribean and South America.
On the other hand, it feels like most people's reception of the situation outside of dedicated chuds and Floridians (but I repeat myself) is muted, and I've already seen a few small anti-intervention protests pop up. After two decades of war, with a domestic civil society whose coherency is hanging by a thread and a global presence that is increasingly challenged, I feel like a flubbed regime change effort there would be the true beginning of the end for the U.S.' empire.
If this is a dumb-dumb take, please don't hesitate to tell me so.
As I just said in the megathread, I passed a Cuba SOS rally a few minutes ago in the downtown of my major city. It was decently sized, got a lot of honks, and I saw more people arriving. There is not a significant cuban community here. It was upsetting seeing all that support, especially knowing the only course that'll be taken from here bar these fizzling out is greater misery for the actual Cuban people. Of course I don't know what will happen, but currently I'm not feeling optimistic. Iraq was providing for it's people before both invasions, while struggling quite a bit before the second which also had an enormous anti-war movement more or less on its side at the time, and war still came. It's tough to imagine physical intervention on that scale here, but whether there's another bay of pigs or a coup attempt is another question. Cuba is resilient, but the US is unrelenting in it's brutality and the current situation, well, you hate to see it
This is part of why I'm nervous. The past week has given me real bad 2003 vibes.