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    • aaaaaaadjsf [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      edit-2
      3 years ago

      R0 is the average amount of people a person infected with an illness will pass it on to/transmit too. It's exponential by nature. Original Covid strain had an R0 between 3 and 4, Covid delta has an to R0 between 5 and 9. Chicken pox has an R0 around 10. I'm just going to illustrate an example comparing an R0 of 3 Vs one of 6, imagine this is the difference between Covid original and Covid delta.

      Example of an R0 of 3 (Original Covid)

      1 person infects 3 people. Now 4 people have the the virus. Now those three people infect three people each (3x3). Now 13 people have the virus. Now those 9 new hosts infect 3 people each. (9x3) Now 40 people have the virus. Now those 27 new hosts infect 3 people each (27x3). Now 121 people have the virus. Now those 81 new hosts infect 3 people each (81x3). Now 324 people have the virus. Etc, etc etc

      Example of an R0 of 6. (Delta variant)

      1 person infects 6 people. Now 7 people have the virus. The 6 new hosts infect 6 people each. (6x6). Now 41 people have the virus. The 36 new hosts infect 6 people each. (36x6). Now 257 people have the virus. Now those 216 hew hosts infect 6 people each (216x6). Now 1512 people have the virus. Now those 1296 new hosts infect 6 people each (1296x6). Now 9288 people have the virus.

      So just a doubling of the R0 from around 3 to around 6 increases infectivity of the virus 28 times, as R0 is exponential by nature.