Main point: The leaked CDC documents should not be inducing a panic, and the Provincetown MA study about transmissibility and spread among vaccinated people are being interpreted extremely irresponsibly by mainstream press.
Recently there was a New York Times report covering an internal CDC document that the Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and spreads just as easily in the vaccinated as the unvaccinated. The NYT's tweet was extremely misleading and harmful, and even the Biden White House has forcefully called them out for spreading misinformation. The internal CDC document is unpublished and is not peer reviewed. It's not meant to be taken as scientific fact, and promoting it because it confirms your priors is bad science.
Debunking "Vaccinated People can Transmit the Virus just as Easily as Unvaccinated People.
The vaccine is 75-80% effective at stopping Delta infections. Just from that a vaccinated person is going to be 1/4-1/5 as likely to transmit the virus as an unvaccinated person. If vaccinated people were as likely as unvaccinated people to get and spread COVID, the vaccine efficacy would be zero. While there is some evidence that vaccinated and unvaccinated people carry similar viral loads, that would only mean vaccinated and unvaccinated people transmit the virus at the same rates CONDITIONAL ON INFECTION. It's also important to point out that "viral load" and "transmission" are not the same thing. I don't know enough about them (not a virologist) to say one way or the other, but that's irrelevant. What matters is the vaccine makes you far less likely to get infected in the first place!
It's possible that infected vaccinated and infected unvaccinated people transmit the virus equally. We don't know. This is one study, and there are other studies of Delta suggesting that the vaccine does halve transmission rate among infected people. It's unquestionable that being vaccinated makes you much, much less likely to be infected.
If you'd like a more thorough debunking of the misinformation about vaccinated/unvaccinated transmission, I'd recommend this thread.
The Massachusetts Study is an extremely biased sample and is not remotely generalizable to the general population. You'll laugh at how un-generalizable is after reading this paragraph.
The Provincetown, Massachusetts study had a sample that was 85% male during Bear Week party weekend. No, I'm not fucking kidding. If you think that's an unbiased sample of the general vaccinated population then you think this country has a lot more fun than I do. This would be the equivalent of measuring the winter wave based on a sample taken on Miami Beach during Spring Break. Provincetown, MA also has a vaccination rate of nearly 100%. It's one of the most vaccinated places in one of the most vaccinated states in the US. That fact that only 74% of the infections were vaccinated is surprising. You think it'd be more!
If you want a deeper dive, then check out this thread: The fact that there was a massive party weekend that sent only 4 people to the hospital with 0 deaths should feel reassuring, not panic-inducing.
Much of the current panic about Delta is being driven by liberal media hounding for clicks, while Actual Experts (TM) haven't seriously updated their priors. I don't think anything has changed in the last month that should make you think differently about Delta. It's important to remember that the fight isn't over, that you should get vaccinated and get your community vaccinated. It's important to remember that there is overwhelming scientific consensus in how great these vaccines are. The delta variant is scary and things aren't looking great right now, but the recent report should not send you into a panic.
Absolute :brainworms: on display here folks. Just because your shitty podcast says this doesn't mean it's true
It doesn't matter if the vaccine cuts down the rate of infection because it's still going to transmit to millions of people and inevitability result in a vaccine resisting strain. Especially because the vaccine will cause a false sense of security and make people abandon masks and social distancing.
What plan is in place to deal with new strains?
Since this is c/science, what’s your scientific evidence or source that the delta variant will result in a vaccine resistant strain?
Stop doom posting.
Simon A. Rella et al, Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains, Scientific Reports (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
Knowing how viruses work isn't doom posting.
Ok ok. I’m reading it. BUT the solution is mandatory vaccines not shaming people about their consumerist mask decisions.
I agree, masks should be free as they're a lifesaving piece of medical equipment and not something that should be a consumer product one has to pay for, as it leaves our poorest and most vulnerable at the greatest risk.
Tru, masks should be free. But the vitriol over whether felix wears one in the gym is consumerist mindset ideological trash.
It’s like blaming someone for not having an electric car to stop climate change. It’s consumerist mindset bullshit. It’s society of the spectacle. It’s liberalism. :liberalism:
No it's just a bunch of baby man children first worlders with no respect for others that can't be bothered to do the bear minimum and wear a mask because they have individualist brainworms. In fact, not masking up in public is peak liberalism
From what I've understood, the frustration people here feel towards Felix is the use of his platform in this conversation.
At least that's how I've felt about it. Like yeah, I get people are frustrated and that's a valid feeling, but when you're one of the more prominent figures who would be considered on the left, you're steering the rhetoric on mask mandates and government responses/lockdowns.
Do I think Felix is going to personally cause the Delta variant to spread? No, but I don't think he's helping much.
Good post, yet the difference in infection to not vaccinated is a huge problem. Even Vietnam had trouble containing the Delta wave which means: Be careful and if you are in a position of power, make sure that shops close, schools close for a bit till the wave is dealt with.
Ideally there would be a full lockdown and mandatory vaccinations until community spread is impossible.
Ideally there would be a full lockdown
Are so many Americans saying that because they never experienced a real lockdown/got stimmy checks last time there was something resembling a lockdown?
schools close
That's kinda already been done only not because of covid lol
But I enjoy panic and hysteria it is more proper for the current moment. And honestly the Biden regime saying that the NYT is wrong just makes me believe they are actually right and I should be concerned. Better to error on the side of caution especially because like half the country still isn't vaccinated anyway.
What happens when a vaccine resisting strain develops because we decided wearing a bit of cloth was too hard?
What happens when it develops in a country that the US refuses to release the vaccine patent to, like how delta came from india??? That’s the much more likely scenario.
Both are just as likely if not inevitable if you know anything about how quickly viruses mutate. The only way to stop this is a hard lockdown until it's completely gone.
The only way to stop this is a hard lockdown until it’s completely gone.
There is practically no way you can do that. You can only protect countries which are mostly uninfected that way, there is no practical way to make delta disappear just by virtue of "hard lockdown" in places where it is already rampant everywhere. Maybe you can in theory, but enjoy your year long lockdown where at multiple points people flip their shit and completely negate it anyways. The only, ONLY practical solution is vaccinating as many people as possible, starting from the countries that are still waiting for their vaccines, and opening up patents so that this can happen easier. "But what if it mutates and becomes vaccine resistant" well that's not inconceivable at this point but it's most likely gonna be some time before that happens if it does, and at least 3 companies to my knowledge are already developing or testing vaccines tailored for the new variants that have emerged. The main thing people should focus on is preventing massive superspreader events, better care in hospitals, and vaccines for everyone and especially the developing world. Give vaccines to every country and then when it slows down give people massive incentives to get vaccinated. The lockdown won't work nearly fast enough, people will flip their shit because they're tired of being hermits or because they need to make a living somehow in places where there isn't adequate financial support for them any more, and start violating it, and then all you will have managed to do is piss off everyone to slow delta by, like, 5 days. I know because it's sort of what happened here with alpha, and that wasn't nearly as transmissible as delta.
You're probably right but god damn if only we did what China did when it first started spreading.
Yeah it could have been over real soon. Australia did alright at first tho. So did Greece tbh, the first lockdown worked. The second didn't. If there is a third one, there is no way it's gonna work, at all, and at this point people will simply ignore it anyways after the first couple of weeks. Lockdowns work for the countries which are mostly uninfected, they can just control who enters and leaves the country, as well as do regional lockdowns for limited time frame when a few cases spring up. The kind of hard, country wide lockdown required to eliminate delta from a country where it is already basically everywhere is just unfeasible. A lockdown to buy some time until more people can be vaccinated in some countries however makes sense.
Either way, we've been saying the "if only we did x when covid first started spreading" thing for more than a year now. It is what it is now. Next step is patents and international cooperation to make sure we can make new vaccines fast enough in case we get a more resistant strain in the future. It feels very stupid that every government is dragging their feet about that.
How about we don't risk it at all by just wearing a damn mask.
Lmao you're talking to me right now.
There are safe ways to socialise... just wear a mask.
There are ways around that that don't involve killing off all of mankind
It'll more likely be the poor and sick that die first but ok :jesus-christ:
And that’s different from before covid how? And how does what I’m saying make that any more likely?
I want vaccines distributed to the global poor ASAP and the patents given to generic pharmaceutical manufacturers in the global south ASAP. those are the people that deserve the vaccine more than you or me.
To be fair you have to have a very high IQ to understand Breaking Bad
jk I've never seen it lol
while it's good that things aren't as bad as indicated, I'm worried that the proverbial cat is out of the bag in terms of public messaging
Wouldn’t it mean that left to it’s own devices (with spread of 6 and 60 percent vaccinated) it would multiply to 3 after one transmission (0.4* 6+0.2*6 *0.6)?
Dude I've read the full post and you're either a troll (which I'm leaning towards) or you're astronomically dumb, but either way everyone can see it and you're not fooling anyone
Just because your shitty chapo podcast idol says it's it's fine not to wear a mask doesn't mean it's true. We always get a bunch of shit takes like this after chapo says something ignorant. Unironically ban all chapotraphouse podcast listeners
