Saudi Arabia has 2 sources of power: Mecca and oil (not in that order). To keep their status as a regional power requires a lot of resources dumped into fundamentalist Salafi proselytizing.
After the OPEC embargo in the 70s, there's been a quiet agreement that as long as the oil stays flowing, the US and SA simply look past their differences. The old line that "a man will begrudge his prince for taking his property far longer than he would begrudge his prince for the death of his father" holds true.
For over half a century now, America's second biggest interest in the Middle East has been crushing anything that looks like social democracy or pan-Arabism. Recent wars in Iraq, Libya, and Syria all fit into this. The best counter to this is a combination of monarchies and Islamic fundamentalism. Sure, this solution is not particularly friendly to the west, but just like Afghanistan, American policy is short-sighted and as long as they aren't wearing the same uniforms when they shoot back, it won't correctly recognize its enemy. So the GCC monarchies- enemies of democracy- have to keep the mask on at least somewhat. The tension that Qatar had recently was because they let their mask slip a bit too much.
they strayed from the Saudi and allies line and too brazenly supported the muslim brotherhood in Egypt and the wrong group in Libya. Qatar has slowly been trying to exercise more influence in middle-eastern politics and gearing up its army (now being one of the top military equipment importers in the world, when only a decade ago they were insignificant in that regard). Ultimately the vie for influence / power failed pretty much everywhere and Qatar and Saudi are slowly reopening diplomatic channels
Thanks for the write up, I know people were writing that the Qatar issue was allegedly over their support for the Muslim brotherhood but I don’t know a ton about them or how they fit into the regional politics, do you have a good article I could read on it?
Saudi Arabia has 2 sources of power: Mecca and oil (not in that order). To keep their status as a regional power requires a lot of resources dumped into fundamentalist Salafi proselytizing.
After the OPEC embargo in the 70s, there's been a quiet agreement that as long as the oil stays flowing, the US and SA simply look past their differences. The old line that "a man will begrudge his prince for taking his property far longer than he would begrudge his prince for the death of his father" holds true.
For over half a century now, America's second biggest interest in the Middle East has been crushing anything that looks like social democracy or pan-Arabism. Recent wars in Iraq, Libya, and Syria all fit into this. The best counter to this is a combination of monarchies and Islamic fundamentalism. Sure, this solution is not particularly friendly to the west, but just like Afghanistan, American policy is short-sighted and as long as they aren't wearing the same uniforms when they shoot back, it won't correctly recognize its enemy. So the GCC monarchies- enemies of democracy- have to keep the mask on at least somewhat. The tension that Qatar had recently was because they let their mask slip a bit too much.
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What did Qatar do?
they strayed from the Saudi and allies line and too brazenly supported the muslim brotherhood in Egypt and the wrong group in Libya. Qatar has slowly been trying to exercise more influence in middle-eastern politics and gearing up its army (now being one of the top military equipment importers in the world, when only a decade ago they were insignificant in that regard). Ultimately the vie for influence / power failed pretty much everywhere and Qatar and Saudi are slowly reopening diplomatic channels
Thanks for the write up, I know people were writing that the Qatar issue was allegedly over their support for the Muslim brotherhood but I don’t know a ton about them or how they fit into the regional politics, do you have a good article I could read on it?
I'm not really an expert, I just read a few books, several articles, and lots and lots of maps.
I would recommend Derek Davison's blog. He's more of an expert on the subject matter, has good politics and analysis, and has been a guest on choppoe
https://fx.substack.com/