Yeah, roughly agree. I do think it's possible for the state to lurch along for a while without real concessions. Things accelerate very fast, but the distances are very large. Like space I guess. It's entirely possible that we stumble our way through election season, Biden somehow wins, and everything stalls out for months as people sit around desperately hoping he'll fix things.
It's hard to predict things concretely with all of these overlapping events that'll also cause new events. But this thread did get me thinking about what the predictable factors are, so here's what I have:
Escalating vertical tension between protesters, cities, states, and the country. Expect new crazy shit in August.
Coronavirus continues unchecked. Some sort of awful tipping point in September.
Eviction crisis. Probably around October.
Stock market crash. Shortly after the election, regardless of result. Even faster if there's a non-electoral leadership change.
And note that my predictions are this concrete because that makes it easier for me to evaluate my accuracy later, not because I'm actually that certain. Also note that the more details I throw onto a timeline like this, the more it sounds like I must be right because I have a lot of details, but in reality every detail is a new opportunity to be wrong. This is called the conjunctive fallacy and it's one of the biggest cognitive biases.
Yeah, roughly agree. I do think it's possible for the state to lurch along for a while without real concessions. Things accelerate very fast, but the distances are very large. Like space I guess. It's entirely possible that we stumble our way through election season, Biden somehow wins, and everything stalls out for months as people sit around desperately hoping he'll fix things.
It's hard to predict things concretely with all of these overlapping events that'll also cause new events. But this thread did get me thinking about what the predictable factors are, so here's what I have:
Escalating vertical tension between protesters, cities, states, and the country. Expect new crazy shit in August.
Coronavirus continues unchecked. Some sort of awful tipping point in September.
Eviction crisis. Probably around October.
Stock market crash. Shortly after the election, regardless of result. Even faster if there's a non-electoral leadership change.
And note that my predictions are this concrete because that makes it easier for me to evaluate my accuracy later, not because I'm actually that certain. Also note that the more details I throw onto a timeline like this, the more it sounds like I must be right because I have a lot of details, but in reality every detail is a new opportunity to be wrong. This is called the conjunctive fallacy and it's one of the biggest cognitive biases.