Green is Boric (the only good leftist here), Yellow is a centrist, and Blue and Pink are far-right essentially. Seriously can anyone explain why parisi is so popular this is devastating, he hasnt even stepped foot on Chile.
Electoral maps that don't reflect population density are worthless (that's how Trump thought he was so popular, by looking at maps that showed all these rural counties with hardly anyone there that voted for him). Even moreso for a place like Chile, where as Cherufe pointed out below that Santiago is 45% of the population of the country.
That said Boric certainly has an uphill struggle in the next round, it would seem.
Yeah its not about the sheer amount of votes boric got but from where: Parisi and kast completely dominated the Far North, which is supposed to be and has until recently always been the bastion of the left and the working class, and its not looking good in the south either. Boric only being able to win in Santiago and the big cities is devastating
Trump took MI, PA, WI, which he was not supposed to be able to do. When you look at the county by county maps, the rural people showed up in droves and simply outvoted the cities. Everyone in the big metropolises went for Hillary, especially Washington DC.
Damn I really overestimated how popular Sichel was based on conversations I had with conservatives that assured me that not enought of them were extreme enough to vote for Kast
Why did this happen? Why is there such a big difference with the results of the constitutional convention election which also happened this year?
My guess (Which isnt worth that much since I really understimated Kast) is that is a "Big city vs rest of the country type of thing"
That little green area at the top of the middle image is where about 45% of the population lives, with Santiago being the biggest city. There is a saying that "Santiago is Chile" because everythinsg and everyone is there, and Boric did fairly well there, winning Santiago by 6% in a very crowded field.
He lost the south (rest of the middle image and the left image), but that was expected because thats a more rural area that has always voted for the right. Some people says that Kast won there because of the conflicts in Araucanía, where he proposes using the military to squash the mapuches, but Kast was going to win the south anyway.
That leaves the north (left image) where wtf Parisi won a lot of cities that guy isnt even living in Chile he did all of his campaign from the USA. Also there is a migrant crisis in the northern border and Kast campaigned on being though on inmigration so he did pretty good in areas that are not so traditionally right wing.
Borics vote share in the election and the overall votes in the leftist primary are almost exactly the same (1,8 million vs 1,7) so evidently Boric just didnt connect at all to greater society (outside of the already self identified and active leftist people). There are a lot if important factors like higher age, lower education status and "rurality" which Boric failed to capture. Its probably just bceause Borics issue and campaign didnt connect with the issues of the people, obviously the media played their part in this, but people just care about a return to normalcy and stability, end to the migrant crisis, crime, inflation, jobs etc. and Boric basically has nothing to offer here
Diebold voting machines?
You're suggesting electoral fraud. What indications do you have that that's happening?
MAD theory of electoral theft and coup politics. If you convince the other side you will only accept an electoral win and coup otherwise then they'll be too scared to steal the election. Democrats tried it all through the Bush II era but failed because they couldn't convince Republicans they were unhinged enough to pull a coup. Republicans are doing it right now but are too stupid to successfully pull of a coup.
Question: is Boric being depicted by the media over there as an evil bloodthirsty communist aspiring dictator?
Eeeeeexactly. Kast is the candidate of "Freedom". But there is of course also a liberal/leftist media which doesnt do that but that is the minority and the right-wing/far-right still sets the narrative and conversation all around. For example after the Nicaraguan election(which were not really democratic) a declaration from some communists came out supporting ortega basically and that was then a major point in the debates and media up until the election. Also Polls (which were pretty accurate we have to admit now) found that people on average rate Boric almost as far-left as Artes (who is a literal revolutionary communist/maoist who openly supports North Korea and got 1,5%)
So in other words, his throwing Nicaragua and Venezuela under the bus was about as effective from a "not being smeared as an evil communist caricature by the opposition" perspective as the Biden campaign?
the Nicaraguan election(which were not really democratic)
Come on, man.
We laugh now today about "Chilezuela" but the truth (sadly) is, it worked (very, very well in fact)
Well yeah. It worked despite his attempt to distance himself from it. So he might as well lean in like the communists did.
So either he made an unsound and unnecessary compromise or he's just a radlib who genuinely hates those left-wing, anti-imperialist Latin American governments (sad!).
Still hope he wins tho.
“Chilezuela” was basically the campaign motto of the Pinera campaign in 2017 (literally the word itself as well as the whole narrative behind it completely drove that campaign) and it brought the greatest victory of the right-wing ever, since the return of democracy. I dont know how exactly to put this, but people really, really dont want (fear?) to be anything like Venezuela
Yeah, I get that. What I'm saying is that anyone on the left will be smeared like that anyway. And it seems like he has been.
I dunno, maybe leaning into it wouldn't be optimal, but trying to run away from it also seems futile. And in the process the support any left-wing government would need gets undermined. Even Boric is gonna have a target on his back if he wins, and denouncing the people who could help stave off the imperialists' attacks seems like a bad idea in the long-run. To say nothing of how they deserve support, too.
True, but i think (in the debates at least) Boric handled it reasonably well (considering his position, where he cant alienate centrist voters), didnt "evade" the question and wasnt constantly on the defensive about it but clearly stated his position but brought it back to Chile ('he condemns human rights Violations everywhere including Chile'). But i think we saw a absolute prime example of what happens to a candidate when he "crosses the line" with Jadue (even in a primary of only leftists). I dont want to see Borics campaign sink in the same fashion as well
Come on do you seriously believe the outcome of the Nicaraguan election was not already predetermined? Just the sheer amount of possible candidates that were arrested/detained, like come on. You can still think ortega is still "the best" choice out of the candidates and massively preferable to the US ravaging nicaragua (which i do, even though theres a lot i dont like about modern day ortega)
Come on do you seriously believe the outcome of the Nicaraguan election was not already predetermined?
Yes. The FSLN is popular for good reason, and the only sense in which the outcome was predetermined was that they were obviously going to win.
The fact that half the opposition was plotting with the United States to illegally undermine or overthrow them just points to how fraudulent they (the opposition) are as a political force. But there was still an opposition that was fully capable of campaigning, and with the backing of private capital giving them the same undemocratic advantages that every other bourgeois party in the world gets. They just got owned, owing in large part to the fact that so many of them were paid stooges of the Amerikkkan empire who overplayed their hands and got caught (and arrested like every threat to the state in every country would be, except in Venezuela I guess). I'm not really interested in entertaining the imperialist narrative that every country where socialist forces are popular and in power is de facto "authoritarian", corrupt, undemocratic, etc., and I flat-out disbelieve anything that the imperialist media says about these countries as a default, so.
I mean there's a million other angles to criticize this narrative from, from the unbelievable atrocities the forces behind the opposition committed for decades (which should make everyone highly suspicious of them because they are very obviously up to no good and very obviously don't give a shit about anything like democracy), to the fact that the Sandinistas have lost elections before and conceded, but my overarching point is that the fact that there are two opposing factions saying opposite things does not mean that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. We don't have to half-believe that the reactionaries are right.
We need to get AOS down there to double check there was no fraud happening.
