Everyone always says the same "but the Spanish Flu became the cute l'il cold we have today!" as if it's some iron law of virology that a virus must evolve to become more mild over time. That only happens if there's evolutionary pressure and the virologist community (who have been damn near exactly right on everything for the last 2 years) are saying this could just as well evolve to become more severe.
Everyone always says the same “but the Spanish Flu became the cute l’il cold we have today!”
If they're saying that then they're wrong on two fronts. The Spanish Flu became modern day influenza. The thing that everyone's supposed to get a vaccination to protect against, annually. It ebbs and flows, but is generally considered a miserable thing to have on a good day and still quite lethal on a bad one (particularly for the elderly and the immuno-compromised).
Symptoms consistent with the common cold can be traced all the way back to the 1550s BC, and earned the moniker as early as the 16th century due to it tending to flourish during cold seasons.
it’s some iron law of virology that a virus must evolve to become more mild over time
I don't know about an Iron Law, but its certainly a noticeable historical trend. The problem is that its a trend that plays out over decades/centuries. We're currently entering into year three of viral spread. The general prediction that COVID will be with us forever is predicated on it becoming on par with seasonal flu, bouncing around the population indefinitely and requiring periodic hygienic response in kind. But there are still exceptionally bad flu years - in the US between 2010 and 2018 we saw a low of 12k deaths and a high of 61k.
So, "more mild over time" comes with an exceptionally large asterisk. More mild than when it was killing 600k/year. But far from non-lethal.
Everyone always says the same "but the Spanish Flu became the cute l'il cold we have today!" as if it's some iron law of virology that a virus must evolve to become more mild over time. That only happens if there's evolutionary pressure and the virologist community (who have been damn near exactly right on everything for the last 2 years) are saying this could just as well evolve to become more severe.
Also last time I had the flu it knocked me on my ass for a week
If they're saying that then they're wrong on two fronts. The Spanish Flu became modern day influenza. The thing that everyone's supposed to get a vaccination to protect against, annually. It ebbs and flows, but is generally considered a miserable thing to have on a good day and still quite lethal on a bad one (particularly for the elderly and the immuno-compromised).
Symptoms consistent with the common cold can be traced all the way back to the 1550s BC, and earned the moniker as early as the 16th century due to it tending to flourish during cold seasons.
I don't know about an Iron Law, but its certainly a noticeable historical trend. The problem is that its a trend that plays out over decades/centuries. We're currently entering into year three of viral spread. The general prediction that COVID will be with us forever is predicated on it becoming on par with seasonal flu, bouncing around the population indefinitely and requiring periodic hygienic response in kind. But there are still exceptionally bad flu years - in the US between 2010 and 2018 we saw a low of 12k deaths and a high of 61k.
So, "more mild over time" comes with an exceptionally large asterisk. More mild than when it was killing 600k/year. But far from non-lethal.
plus it didn't become the cold, it is still influenza! :angery: