The piece is best summed up in its closing paragraphs:

So just what in the world is going on, exactly? At this most critical of times, why is the US thinking of tucking tail and running from the region? My take is this: in short, the US is being run out of town by Iran. Their bluff was called and US knows their puny strikes can do nothing to truly degrade Iran’s highly decentralized hybrid warfare systems and groups. Iran has risen to become a hegemon verging on a Great Power of the region. The US has a few obsolete fleets which cannot keep up blow for blow with Iran in exchanged rounds of ammo. Iran can saturate them forever with drones and cheap rockets which the US is spending millions per every fired shot to intercept. Furthermore, the US cannot produce its most important strike weapons in enough quantity to ever win a long endurance stand off. For instance, here’s a thread showing US’ procurement of refurbished and upgraded Tomahawks, indicating they can only produce a few dozen per year for hundreds of millions of dollars. Though it may seem unrelated, this new video of Arestovich is quite topical. He describes why NATO could never defeat the Russian-Iran axis. In particular, what he gets incisively accurate is that US is really only good for one big hammer blow, after which it would have major sustainment issues in producing the precision strike systems for a long-haul endurance campaign. He’s absolutely right. The US can launch a massive shock and awe of hundreds of Tomahawks at a time—even a thousand. But against Yemen such firepower does nothing but hit cactuses and empty sheds.

The US is currently at a precipice where it can still somewhat save face by retreating early and pretending it never intended to commit in the first place. But if it goes on and overcommits, it stands to get militarily exposed. The world will see the US as utterly weak and beatable. If they went “all out” with full force posture and nonstop strikes and achieved nothing, it would show that the mighty US naval fleets are impotent, all the vaunted force projection capabilities are totally overrated and useless against Iran. It’s like a bully throwing a smaller kid up against the school locker. There is that one split moment where the bully’s path is forked: he can either go all in and begin the fight, at which point if he happens to get beat by the smaller kid, his reputation is ruined forever. Or, he can take the small prestige hit by pushing the small kid away and saying: “Eh, you aren’t worth it anyway, twerp.” It may look like a bit of a cop out, but the bully still manages to preserve most of his aura of dominance.

I believe US is in precisely this position. It sees itself as nearing the “point of no return” after which it would have to either totally commit to an overwhelming victory—which internally US planners know is not possible without a massive unprecedented Gulf War-esque conflict with boots on the ground—or cut its losses now and exchange a small amount of embarrassment and shame for an existential-level humiliation that could entirely ruin the US for good—which is what would happen if it totally committed and lost. Each day that passes and each new strike on US bases in Iraq and Syria brings the US closer and closer toward the brink. They know they cannot maintain this tempo, particularly given that Israel was the US’ chief mode of deterrence against Iran in Syria. But now Israel has its own hands tied in Gaza and US has suddenly found itself being overwhelmed. The action appears to be coordinated within the resistance axis, particularly given new reports that Russia will begin aerial patrols of the Golan Heights corridor. This may be a tactic to block the US in with a one-two punch. Russian planes deter Israeli strikes, which helps Iran build strength and deliver arms to its militias in Syria; then those militias increase pressure by hammering US bases in the region. Seeing the writing on the wall, the US knows the situation is untenable and unsustainable.

Will the US actually scram sometime soon? Most likely not, as there are multiple factions, amongst which are the neocons which will surely push with all their strength to maintain US troop presences in the region, even if it takes a new small falseflag or two. However, it certainly is a sign of the times and of how desperate the situation is becoming for the Empire.

But the pressure on them continues increasing, the Iraqi resistance released a new message just today that they are initiating phase two:

Senior Iraqi Islamic Resistance Commander Hajj Abu Alaa Al-Wala’i: Resistance operations have moved to the second phase. The second phase of the Islamic Resistance’s operations in Iraq includes enforcing the blockade on Zionist maritime navigation in the Mediterranean Sea and putting the ports of the usurping entity out of service.

This is an escalation spiral that the West is not ready for, particularly when they’re embroiled in numerous conflicts around the globe. Of course there’s always the chance that US may end up totally doubling down, but at this point, its position has never been weaker. And the longer things go, the more economic damage is done to the West and its allies. Russia and China continue to have free passage through the straits, as well as cheap energy, while the West is taking all the hits. The longer it goes, the larger the political storms that will engulf Europe. The AfD in Germany, for instance, is already now calling for a DeXit or German exit to leave the EU. Things are certainly coming to a head, and the chickens are coming home to roost for the US as well, as the southern border is now slowly inching toward civil war.