They found that reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 in people who had not received a vaccine could occur as soon as 3 months after initial infection, with a median risk of reinfection within 16 months, under endemic conditions.
A median risk means half the people will fall below it - the point I'm making is reinfection can occur and even if Omicron became endemic, the commenter should be expecting to catching it approximately every 1.5 years for the rest of his life. Considering the risk of complications and possible long-term effects, that would be catastrophic on a population-level.
None of this matters because new variants are guaranteed and, as you point out, that's a larger risk of escaping immunity. Any idea people have of "natural immunity" helping with this pandemic is and has always been pure cope.
The funniest part is his comment is specifically about catching Omicron instead of a potentially more deadly variant, which Omicron probably wouldn't make you immune to and you would still catch.
Isn't there a possibility that Omicron spreads through the population that it burns itself out? Wouldn't this decrease the risk of a new worse varient emerging?
It's the opposite - the more it spreads, the higher the chance of variants forming. The article in OP touches on this, plus the possibility of variants forming in animal populations.
It's clear we need effective strategies to deal with these kinds of pandemics (like China), and that the "let it spread and hope" method the west is adopting is going to kill a lot of people and make things worse.
I agree totally about china showing the correct way forward.
However I'm hesitant to buy into all the latest covid doomerism. The idea that a new and more contagious and more deadly and vaccine escaping variant seems not certain to me
Nothing is certain, of course. However, it's generally not productive to assume the best case, because you end up with the American response instead of the Chinese one. In the case of a global pandemic, I prefer to stay on the safe side.
The article in OP touches on variants, and it indicates there's no reason to expect it to go away after Omicron, which many seem to.
The possibility of more deadly variants occurring and spreading is always there - as far as I understand, the idea that viruses generally get less deadly is true, historically, but over much longer timelines than what we're talking about.
The possibility of more deadly variants occurring and spreading is always there
This is true of all other viruses also, no? This doesn't seem convincing that we need to be so worried about this possibility with COVID
I'm in full support of being prepared for the worst but there does seem to be a strain of doomerism out there that doesn't just want to prepare for the worst but also to insist that the worst is certain.
This coronavirus seems uniquely adaptive because of the incredibly high viral loads that are found in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Every copy of the virus carries the risk of a new, more dangerous variant.
Other viruses are not currently or historically infecting millions of hosts every day. When there's a million people infected every day the chance of a worse variant is a million times higher than if there was 1 case a day.
It's not just that variants must emerge but they must out compete all other variants and have immune escape. What are the chances that a more deadly and more contagious and immune escaping variant emerges?
If viruses are always under evolutionary pressure to evolve to be worse, why don't we have constant emerging of new, more deadly, immune/vaccine escaping variants for all other viruses?
Look up above in the thread. Another poster shared a link about the median immunity being 16 months for the unvaxxed. Idk how or if that changes for a vaccinated individual
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-reinfection-how-long-might-natural-immunity-last#Analyzing-the-data
One example, but the even bigger issue is that those future variants he's talking about in his comment could just bypass this immunity completely.
That's just for the unvaccinated and with a median risk of 16 months that's pretty long.
For the vaccinated i don't think reinfection should be much of a concern. I agree that the real danger is the emergence of new variants
A median risk means half the people will fall below it - the point I'm making is reinfection can occur and even if Omicron became endemic, the commenter should be expecting to catching it approximately every 1.5 years for the rest of his life. Considering the risk of complications and possible long-term effects, that would be catastrophic on a population-level.
None of this matters because new variants are guaranteed and, as you point out, that's a larger risk of escaping immunity. Any idea people have of "natural immunity" helping with this pandemic is and has always been pure cope.
The funniest part is his comment is specifically about catching Omicron instead of a potentially more deadly variant, which Omicron probably wouldn't make you immune to and you would still catch.
Isn't there a possibility that Omicron spreads through the population that it burns itself out? Wouldn't this decrease the risk of a new worse varient emerging?
It's the opposite - the more it spreads, the higher the chance of variants forming. The article in OP touches on this, plus the possibility of variants forming in animal populations.
It's clear we need effective strategies to deal with these kinds of pandemics (like China), and that the "let it spread and hope" method the west is adopting is going to kill a lot of people and make things worse.
I agree totally about china showing the correct way forward.
However I'm hesitant to buy into all the latest covid doomerism. The idea that a new and more contagious and more deadly and vaccine escaping variant seems not certain to me
Nothing is certain, of course. However, it's generally not productive to assume the best case, because you end up with the American response instead of the Chinese one. In the case of a global pandemic, I prefer to stay on the safe side.
The article in OP touches on variants, and it indicates there's no reason to expect it to go away after Omicron, which many seem to.
The possibility of more deadly variants occurring and spreading is always there - as far as I understand, the idea that viruses generally get less deadly is true, historically, but over much longer timelines than what we're talking about.
This is true of all other viruses also, no? This doesn't seem convincing that we need to be so worried about this possibility with COVID
I'm in full support of being prepared for the worst but there does seem to be a strain of doomerism out there that doesn't just want to prepare for the worst but also to insist that the worst is certain.
This coronavirus seems uniquely adaptive because of the incredibly high viral loads that are found in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Every copy of the virus carries the risk of a new, more dangerous variant.
Other viruses are not currently or historically infecting millions of hosts every day. When there's a million people infected every day the chance of a worse variant is a million times higher than if there was 1 case a day.
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Hello friend!
It's not just that variants must emerge but they must out compete all other variants and have immune escape. What are the chances that a more deadly and more contagious and immune escaping variant emerges?
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If viruses are always under evolutionary pressure to evolve to be worse, why don't we have constant emerging of new, more deadly, immune/vaccine escaping variants for all other viruses?
deleted by creator
Sure, but they're rarely more deadly. And not always immune escaping. And they never seem to get more contagious
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Look up above in the thread. Another poster shared a link about the median immunity being 16 months for the unvaxxed. Idk how or if that changes for a vaccinated individual
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Isn't that the most likely future for COVID? Don't get me wrong i think that would still be horrible but it would be manageable like the flu.
The hoopla about there being a new worse variant seems like simple doomerism to me
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