I posted two months ago that I had left the US to... somewhere. Well, it was Belarus. Because my mom is from here. So there's that. I'm just one smol human bean with vicious brain worms, but I'd be happy to answer questions about/from the perspective of this point on the Google Maps before we're disconnected by the Iron Curtain 2.0.
(It's evening here, I have a few hours, but if I don't answer your question I'll get back to it tomorrow I promise (unless it's redundant/silly/makes me mad lol))
E: I'm going to bed but I'll answer any new questions when I'm up, as promised.
Re Belarus specifically, Lukashenko advocated for peace negotiations, like it happened in 2015, he calls for Minsk-3. He is earnest about this. Not only because that happened before already and because that'd be good for his reputation, but also because Belarus generally takes a very careful still not hostile to Ukraine approach (not that Russia is hostile to Ukrainian non-combatants but still), in state media too. But that's not gonna happen anymore.
Generally, not-Belarus specific, since I've been reading a lot of Russian-language military reports, the narrative is like you say, and more specifically: Russia advances, takes a little pause, and waits for the Ukraine govt to respond to their demands (negotiations, Ukr military stands down, etc, capitulation basically); Initially, Ukr side did start talking, then refused to do the talks in Minsk, then suggested to do it in Warsaw, then just stopped responding; Russian forces advance again, take a pause; Ukr govt says "no we won't do it on your terms, if you want to talk do it on our terms"; resulting in the current full speed advancement of Russian forces atm.
Truth dies 1st during a war. And information warfare has become so much part of war. But so far, it's been mostly silence from the Russian official side re what's going on, and there's been a lot of really juvenile propaganda from the Ukrainian officials, including footage from a video game ( that even Reuters had to admit was false) . So all cards on the table I trust the Russian side much more, especially since I, as a Slav, don't want what's been happening in Ukraine to come here. But I'd also just honestly suggest to take a nap for those uninvolved, or if ppl really must know, to not believe any text without evidence, to check if footage had already been posted before but is attributed to be about something else etc etc. It's just not possible to know anything for sure atm.
Is there a given reason why Ukraine won't respond? Does Lukashenko still have a lot of sway with Ukraine?
No official sway or any sway atm. Ukraine even imposed some sanctions on BY before EU did in 2021. Zelensky is a Western puppet. Ukraine never had bad blood with Belarus before him, even during Poroshenko, who was also pro-Western. Regular Ukrainians, the closer they live to the Belarusian borders, the more they respect Lukashenko.
It's extremely irresponsible that Zelensky doesn't negotiate. In Kiyev, they gave arms to everyone who wanted, around 20k units, there's been maraudering and lots of friendly fire last night. It makes no sense. As if someone gave Ukr govt an order to increase the chaotization of the situation as much as possible. Or hZelensky is incredibly disinformed. Or he's a coward. Rumor has it he'd fled from Kiyv to Lviv and those messages from him that'd been coming from Kiyv are pre-recorded. It is also said that's he's being "defended" by the nazi forces in Lviv. If that's true (and those people have nothing to lose at the moment obviously) it could be that they had threatened Zelensky to say these things or else. But I'm just speculating. Whatever it is, it's nuts. Ukr official channels have been suggesting regular people go fight Russian tanks. (For the media picture, of course.)
this whole thing seems like US/NATO are sacrificing Ukrainians to force Putin/Russia to look like butchers, as far as I'm understanding of this situation (fog of war), Russia's slow advance towards Kyiv shows they are trying to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible. Compare that to USA response when an American solider gets killed, they just start bombing the town into rubble.
Zelensky and Ukraine as been played as the sacrificial lamb, they kept poking the Russans thinking that US/Nato had their back militarily.
that's my take too. Biden admin loves to say every day on the TV that the US army won't fight for Ukraine bc that'd mean a war with Russia. what they imply is that they're perfectly happy to fight a proxy war with Russia down to the last Ukrainian
Hey where have I seen this before :joe-ligotti:
True. Whatever the story Zelensky doesn't come out of it looking good.
Thanks for the insights! Stay safe
I am sorry about that footage it seemed very real to me and I have apologized to Ukrainian governments.