https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/01/huge-convoy-of-russian-vehicles-approaching-kyiv.html

Russia appears to have upped the ante in its invasion of Ukraine overnight with satellite imagery indicating that a long convoy — some 40 miles (65 kilometers) long — of Russian military vehicles is heading toward Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv.

Teneo analysts said Monday that “the movement of Russian military forces suggests preparations for new, likely heavier, military action against the capital Kyiv and other key cities in the coming days.”

In conjunction with this US senate intel briefing: https://twitter.com/jackturmanIII/status/1498478403250446337

After the classified briefing on Ukraine/Russia, Sen. Graham said, “I expect a scorched earth policy to unfold here in the coming days regarding Ukraine. I expect wholesale slaughter of Ukrainian citizens by the Russian military.”

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477863804313600

1/ Confirmation that the Russians have fallen behind their timeline. Ukrainian resistance has been fierce and there have been multiple Russian equipment and logistics failures.

2/ DoD and DHS are pressing hard for Congress to end the continuing resolution and get a budget passed. There is no way for our national security agencies to be nimble enough to support Ukraine if they are operating on the 2020/21 budget. [editor’s note: fuck you]

3/ The ability to keep supply lines running to Ukraine remains alive, but Russia will try to encircle and cut off Kiev in the next several weeks. The fight for Kiev will be long and bloody and Ukrainians are rapidly preparing for street to street combat.

I didn't think Russia would escalate the war this far, so I'm keeping a very open mind on how much restraint they're showing. Showing off new equipment would disclose all of its vulnerabilities to the NATO weapons Ukraine has been given. That's what we'd euphemistically call live tissue training in medicine. The US will come away from this war with so much quality data about how to shoot down a helicopter or blow up a tank under any environmental condition. If Russia can still advance with acceptable losses using old equipment, they're not disclosing anything of actual value to the enemy. Adjustments to those weapons will only be specific to old platforms that Russia wouldn't use as frontline troops in a higher grade war.

That convoy seems like the thing to watch for me. If they repeat Grozny with Kyiv, it's a war where winning and losing don't mean anything like Syria. It seems like they're building the capabilities to at least threaten the city with a siege and the city has outfitted itself for the house-to-house fighting the Chechens used.