it seems to me like china is willing to play the long game. the mainland is already taiwan's biggest trading partner and there are tunnels under construction between the two. reunification is something the CPC definitely wants, but after seeing the reaction to the Russian invasion i don't think they are going to be launching a military invasion any time soon. that being said i don't think they would shy away if they feel like a line has been crossed (e.g. taiwan declaring independence). between climate change causing big droughts, the mainland quickly catching up in microchip production, and china's generally increasing standard of living, i think that the CPC is hoping for/counting on taiwan to get desperate while america and the west looks weak and china looks like the safe choice. the question is how far is america going to take it, if they keep edging towards recognizing taiwan as independent (biden invited a taiwanese delegation to his inauguration for example, the first time that has happened since the 70s) china may feel like their hand is being forced.

xi and the party also seem to be a lot more internally stable than putin so i don't think they will feel like they need to invade to shore up popular support. you can bet that both sides of the strait are watching these events closely. if in 10 years ukraine is still a violent, war torn hellhole mostly being fought over by western-funded militias with western-supplied arms, i think the taiwanese might start to back away from the west and see reunification as the least-bad option.