https://archive.is/XUjOH

spoiler

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale.

The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line.

Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or missing vary, and a precise count may not be possible until Ukraine solidifies new defensive lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate.

American officials say the loss of Avdiivka is not a significant strategic setback, arguing that Russian gains in eastern Ukraine will not necessarily lead to any collapse of Ukrainian lines and that Moscow is unlikely to be able to follow up with another major offensive.

But the capture of hundreds of soldiers could change that calculus. American officials have said in recent days that morale was already eroding among Ukrainian troops, in the wake of a failed counteroffensive last year and the removal of a top commander. Because of those problems, the officials said, Ukraine’s military has struggled with recruitment.

Ukrainian military officials have said they want to mobilize up to 500,000 more people, but the request has met political resistance and is stalled in Parliament. The capture of hundreds of soldiers, especially those with battlefield experience, would make the need for more troops more acute and complicate the effort to recruit more.

As a result, the fall of Avdiivka may be more important than it initially seemed.

The Ukrainian military command has acknowledged that some soldiers were captured in the retreat from Avdiivka but has tried to downplay the numbers and the significance.

On Saturday, Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine’s military fighting in the area, said on the Telegram messaging application that the retreat had gone according to plan but “at the final stage of the operation, under pressure from the superior forces of the enemy, some Ukrainian servicemen fell into captivity.” He did not disclose how many troops were captured.

Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for General Tarnavsky, disputed reports that hundreds of soldiers had been captured, calling it misinformation. But he acknowledged that Russia had captured some service members and that a “certain number” of soldiers were missing.

A senior Ukrainian official insisted that only six soldiers had been taken prisoner in the retreat from the city. Those soldiers, from the Third Separate Assault Brigade, were captured after they ran out of ammunition and lost communication with the Ukrainian military, the official said.

But some soldiers and Western officials said a failure to execute an orderly withdrawal, and the chaos that unfolded Friday and Saturday as the defenses collapsed, was directly responsible for what appears to be a significant number of soldiers captured.

They said the Ukrainian withdrawal was ill-planned and began too late. The soldiers and Western officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments that are at odds with Ukrainian government statements.

Retreating under withering artillery fire, drones and airstrikes is one of the most difficult military maneuvers, challenging commanders to minimize loss of life and allow units to fall back without ceding more land than intended.

Based on interviews with soldiers, Ukraine’s forces were unprepared for how quickly the Russian advance in Avdiivka gathered speed last week.

Ukraine tried to buy time for its regular infantry forces to pull back, out of the city, using its special operation forces and the elite Third Separate Assault Brigade to cover the retreat. But the units could not slow the Russian advance or get every Ukrainian soldier out.

Senior Ukrainian officials say the Russian forces also suffered heavy losses in the battle. Russia took Avdiivka by sheer mass, sending in troops and armored vehicles until Ukrainian defenses folded. Thousands of Russia soldiers were killed and wounded, the officials said.

A chaotic retreat is not inevitable. Withdrawing troops without taking heavy losses is difficult, but possible, if it is done in a deliberate, unrushed operation, according to American strategists.

In Avdiivka, Ukraine appeared to have waited too long to start withdrawing and the frantic retreat quickly turned costly.

For the Ukrainians, the challenge of pulling out of Avdiivka was compounded by the fact Russia had surrounded the city on nearly three sides. A single paved road was the most viable way into and out of the city. That route, which Ukrainian troops nicknamed the road of life, came under direct threat earlier this month, making the withdrawal far more dangerous.

When Ukrainian forces began pulling back, unverified open source videos and photos showed units retreating under artillery fire and bodies scattered along roads and in tree lines. Ukrainian military units have long struggled to communicate with each other because they often have different radio equipment. Soldiers with knowledge of the retreat said the communication problems were a factor in the withdrawal, leading to soldiers being captured, killed and wounded.

The soldiers interviewed by The New York Times suggested that some units pulled back before others were aware of the retreat. That put the units left behind at risk of encirclement by the Russians.

Since the war began nearly two years ago, Russian forces have tried to encircle and capture Ukrainian forces. While well-prepared defenses and overhead drones have prevented many of those maneuvers from succeeding, in Avdiivka, the Russian encirclement appears to have worked. Western officials suggest the maneuver was one reason soldiers were captured during the retreat.

Unverified videos posted to social media also showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian troops in and around Avdiivka. On Sunday, the prosecutor’s office in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk oblast said on Telegram it was launching an investigation into “into the shootings of unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war in Avdiivka and Vesele.”

The Kremlin itself does not appear to have been prepared for the speed of the Ukrainian collapse in Avdiivka. Often Kremlin propaganda pushed through the state-controlled news media leads the themes on Russian social media, said Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs AI, which studies Russian messaging and public opinion. But as the Ukrainian defense in Avdiivka collapsed, the discussions on Russian social media started shifting before the Kremlin settled on new messaging.

“Russia wasn’t really prepped for this either in terms of a prepared propaganda blitz,” Mr. Teubner said. “They have now pounced on it, but haven’t managed to launch a successful coordinated messaging campaign yet.”

Prisoners of war are one of the biggest challenges to morale in any war. Ukraine has pressed Russia repeatedly to agree to exchange prisoners.

As of November, the Ukrainian government said that Russia had 3,574 Ukrainian military personnel in captivity.

In January, Ukraine used a Western-provided Patriot missile to take down a Russian cargo plane that officials thought was carrying missiles and munitions. Russian officials said it was transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war. American officials have said it appeared probable that some Ukrainian prisoners were on the plane.

  • FourteenEyes [he/him]
    ·
    9 months ago

    Damn you mean when you conscript people damn near at gunpoint and shove them into a meat grinder with little training they don't perform well that's crazy

    • FlakesBongler [they/them]
      ·
      9 months ago

      I mean, it was funny when it was those redditors

      Now it's funny, but in a "You have to laugh because otherwise the darkness of the world will consume you" kind of way

      • FourteenEyes [he/him]
        ·
        9 months ago

        It's not really funny at all, no. My country gave fascists $75 billion to squander in an unwinnable war that they spent on uranium shells and cluster bombs that are going to be killing people in that region for decades to come.

        • PKMKII [none/use name]
          ·
          9 months ago

          Hey now, that’s not accurate. I’m sure with the way the international black market works, those weapons will be killing people all over the world for decades.

          • FourteenEyes [he/him]
            ·
            9 months ago

            No, I was referring to the spent ordinance. All the guns went directly into the hands of organized crime

            • happybadger [he/him]
              hexagon
              ·
              9 months ago

              l'm sure some of the guns made it into the hands of Russian/Iranian/North Korean weapon manufacturers. Maybe the impact of that will balance out the impact of the ones going to Nazi terrorists and the black market.

    • NeelixBiederman [he/him]
      ·
      9 months ago

      If I were a Ukrainian conscript, I'd be looking for the first opportunity to get captured

      • ShimmeringKoi [comrade/them]
        ·
        9 months ago

        I would be like one of those car dealership inflatable tube guys with white flags in my hands

    • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml
      ·
      9 months ago

      B-bu-but

      Russia took Avdiivka by sheer mass, sending in troops and armored vehicles until Ukrainian defenses folded. Thousands of Russia soldiers were killed and wounded, the officials said.

      Considering what we seen in last year offensive, it's again pure projection.

  • Yiazmat@lemmygrad.ml
    ·
    9 months ago

    reminder for anyone who wasn't aware: the "Third Assault Brigade" the article mentions is literally just the rebranded Azov battalion lol. Eat shit, Nazis

    • happybadger [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      9 months ago

      After their victory at Mariupol, who could have foreseen problems relying on Azov Battalion for the entire battle plan? Remember how they sat in a basement and died until they were captured? That was so epic slava.

      • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
        ·
        9 months ago

        They believed they were going to be rescued, the Ukrainian command refused to let them surrender or tell them the city was lost months prior. Also at some point they even tried some hollywood b movie style rescue with a cargo ship and some helicopters at night.

        • ashinadash [she/her]
          ·
          9 months ago

          the Ukrainian command refused to let them surrender or tell them the city was lost months prior.

          A Sixth Army at the Battle of Stalingrad type beat pit

        • 420stalin69
          ·
          9 months ago

          The helicopters were to get the CIA out.

      • RyanGosling [none/use name]
        ·
        9 months ago

        Remember how they sat in a basement and died until they were captured?

        They’re just following their leader.

    • Tunnelvision [they/them]
      ·
      9 months ago

      If the casualty reports are true I really doubt any of these guys are actually azov Nazis. Could be wrong obviously but I’m much more willing to bet anyone who was a true azov fighter died in Mariupol and Bahkmut. The guys fighting now are conscripts being pressed into service by whatever Nazi is left from the early fighting or alternatively they are foreign Nazis willing to fight in an assault brigade (aka the guys who’s job it is to charge a Russian machine gun nest and assault a trench).

      • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
        ·
        edit-2
        9 months ago

        There were an absolute ton of Azov or Azov-aligned nazis in the Ukrainian military, they weren't just in the official Azov battalion. A lot of these far-right units have been preserved at the rear in order to conserve them. Note that the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade has been held back from hard fighting in Avdiika and was only committed once Ukraine had no other choice if they wanted to try to relieve the town.

        Edit: These far-right units are considered "ideologically loyal" so one of the reasons they're kept back is as a backstop to any threats from the Ukrainian soldiers.

        • Tunnelvision [they/them]
          ·
          9 months ago

          I don’t think I explained myself correctly, but that’s pretty much what I’m saying. Whatever Nazi azov (I’m using azov as a catchall for ideologically committed fascist units) guys were left after the initial phases of the SMO they saw their Nazis friends get steamrolled and decided to stay in the back to either join press gang units or to act as a backstop like you said. In my opinion the reality of the situation is these assault groups are being made up of conscripts and those conscripts are being led by foreign volunteers (Nazis) who specifically want to be a part of a far right assault group. I understand the idea that these guys are being held in reserve, but I’m kinda skeptical of this too because if Russia gets any information of concentrations of personnel, especially if they’re known nazi units, they pretty much kill them. I’m sure they don’t get everyone, but I doubt they miss that much. The fact that avdiivka was an unorganized retreat kinda shows this considering that’s what these backstop units were supposed to prevent.

  • Aryuproudomenowdaddy [comrade/them]
    ·
    9 months ago

    Ukrainian military units have long struggled to communicate with each other because they often have different radio equipment.

    10's of billions of dollars and they can't get the same brand of walkie talkies

    • Adkml [he/him]
      ·
      9 months ago

      Us military aid using the same strategy I use for gift giving.

      Only give them consumables so you can give them the same thing in 6 months.

    • RyanGosling [none/use name]
      ·
      9 months ago

      Americans were using their paychecks to buy individual optics and ammo for individual soldiers in Ukraine even though the government was sending billions over every few weeks lol

  • Adkml [he/him]
    ·
    9 months ago

    the commander of Ukraine’s military fighting in the area, said on the Telegram messaging application that the retreat had gone according to plan but “at the final stage of the operation, under pressure from the superior forces of the enemy, some Ukrainian servicemen fell into captivity.

    Chocolate rations have been increased from 20 grams to 10 grams.

    Russia wasn’t really prepped for this either in terms of a prepared propaganda blitz,” Mr. Teubner said. “They have now pounced on it, but haven’t managed to launch a successful coordinated messaging campaign yet.

    Gee I wonder if prioritizing military victories over producing frontline propoganda videos for western consumption had anything to do with the disparity in results for the two armies

    • happybadger [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      9 months ago

      But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate.

      On Saturday, Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine’s military fighting in the area, said on the Telegram messaging application that the retreat had gone according to plan but “at the final stage of the operation, under pressure from the superior forces of the enemy, some Ukrainian servicemen fell into captivity.” He did not disclose how many troops were captured.

      Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for General Tarnavsky, disputed reports that hundreds of soldiers had been captured, calling it misinformation. But he acknowledged that Russia had captured some service members and that a “certain number” of soldiers were missing.

      A senior Ukrainian official insisted that only six soldiers had been taken prisoner in the retreat from the city. Those soldiers, from the Third Separate Assault Brigade, were captured after they ran out of ammunition and lost communication with the Ukrainian military, the official said.

      It's beyond cartoon shit. I'm excited to see these lying Nazis start blaming/shooting each other once they take a break from retreating.

  • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
    ·
    9 months ago

    Week 1 "It wont happen, the war has been a stalemate for months!"

    Week 8 "It was only a small part of the city, not strategically significant."

    Week 16"It is a grey area and it was not confirmed yet, we need multiple geolocated videos and at least 2 dozen independent reports before we can say for sure, "

    Week 19 "We're sending re-reinforcements, Steiner's group the 3rd brigade will save the city."

    Week 20

    American officials say the loss of Avdiivka is not a significant strategic setback, arguing that Russian gains in eastern Ukraine will not necessarily lead to any collapse of Ukrainian lines and that Moscow is unlikely to be able to follow up with another major offensive.

    A clown world.

    • Maoo [none/use name]
      ·
      9 months ago

      Counterpoint: a day or two ago some libs were saying this didn't happen and they cited no sources. I don't know who to believe. It's so hard to think.

  • FlakesBongler [they/them]
    ·
    9 months ago

    Goddamn, they can't even retreat execute a brave and smart tactical withdrawal properly

    • happybadger [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      9 months ago

      Some of the footage in https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/ is goofy-ass. They abandoned field hospitals full of wounded soldiers, combat-ready tanks surrounded by ammunition, and command posts with all of their electronics. I don't think I've seen incompetence like this since the Afghan National Army bravely held off the Taliban.

      • D61 [any]
        ·
        9 months ago

        To be fair... abandoning field hospitals full of wounded is pretty standard. Moving wounded might get them killed in a firefight, bombing, artillery strike and if you're fairly confident that your opposition is trying to follow any of the Geneva Conventions its the best option to let them get captured and treated by opposition medical personnel.

        • happybadger [he/him]
          hexagon
          ·
          9 months ago

          Combined with leaving a fully operational tank surrounded by fully intact ammunition, would you say that suggests a coordinated retreat where they thought about the intricacies of international law- in a war where both sides routinely shoot POWs- or an uncoordinated retreat where a bunch of Nazis dropped what they were doing and ran away screaming and shitting themselves? I'm not going to give them any benefit of the doubt because they're incompetent Nazis. There's no more tactical or strategic brilliance to them than there is any yeehaw militia in Texas.

          • D61 [any]
            ·
            9 months ago

            Weird flex but .. no. But throwing in a wrong thing in a list of right things could be corrected by removing the wrong thing though.

    • huf [he/him]
      ·
      9 months ago

      a well organized retreat is super fucking hard, so i'm not surprised

  • 420blazeit69 [he/him]
    ·
    9 months ago

    Prisoners of war are one of the biggest challenges to morale in any war. Ukraine has pressed Russia repeatedly to agree to exchange prisoners...

    In January, Ukraine used a Western-provided Patriot missile to take down a Russian cargo plane that officials thought was carrying missiles and munitions. Russian officials said it was transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war. American officials have said it appeared probable that some Ukrainian prisoners were on the plane.

    Yeah you can really see Russia is the one holding up prisoner exchanges

    • happybadger [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      9 months ago

      They just saw a transport plane large enough to carry all of the POWs they were anticipating flying to a border city where they were to be exchanged. Who could connect those two things?

      Also unrelated but it seems that I'm choking on a can of beans because I didn't know you're supposed to open it first.

  • 420stalin69
    ·
    9 months ago

    How could the retreat possibly be “ill-planned” like they didn’t see it coming?

    Actually shocking to learn they weren’t planning for this pretty obvious eventuality.

  • RyanGosling [none/use name]
    ·
    9 months ago

    The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line.

    Very funny that Ukraine is surrounded by supposed European allies, literally most of NATO is right next to them, and yet they refuse to do anything more lol. Luckily Ukraine is still winning and killing 50 million Russians a day so this is just a small setback. No big deal