• goboman [any]
    ·
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    Reunification inside a decade would be absolutely insane. Quite frankly getting a border poll within the decade would be a pretty big step and not one I'm sure will happen so easily.

    Here's the kicker about the Good Friday agreement and it's outlining of the re-unification process. ONLY the Northern Irish Secretary of State can call for a border poll. To be clear that's a British parliamentary position appointed by the UK Prime Minister, currently it's some Conservative MP called Brandon Lewis. That's right, absolutely no political party in N.I can officially trigger the border poll no mater how many seats they've won or not.

    This puts the beginnings of re-unification squarely on the feet of the ruling party of the UK. Neither Labour or Conservatives want to be the ones that 'lost' Northern Ireland or restarted the troubles, so it is always going to be to their best interest to avoid triggering that poll for as long as they possibly can.

    Here's how it's called out in the GFA. You can see that wording is intentionally vague enough that the Secretary of State can refuse to call the poll based on basically his own 'vibes' on the situation. Also note that if the republicans lose the poll, another cannot be held for 7 years. So not only do they need to get the Secretary of State to agree to call the poll, they had better be sure they'll win it.

      • goboman [any]
        ·
        edit-2
        2 years ago

        That's probably the smart move to take on the side of N.I parties waiting to ask, but a dangerous game for the U.K to play if they're denying a poll requested!

        If Sinn Féin are thinking straight they'll play the longer game, time is on their side demographics wise.