More than double by December? That sounds unlikely, given how much production is domestic.
I work accounting for O&G and I can tell you the current wholesale market rate for liquid gasoline out of natural gas wells is trading at around $2.20/gal. Gasoline futures contracts are trading around $3/gal into Dec '22.
I mean, if they're right and we really do expect to hit $10/gal, better put your chips down. Because that's going to produce some stratospheric growth in the O&G market if true. But I'd like to see a bit more than rumor on it.
he just responded with a vague “from my investment news sources” lol okay dad
lmfao my partners mom has got terminally leaded boomer brain. She was talking about the civil war breaking out back in 2020 and all this insane shit trump was gonna do against the DEEP STATE, and when we'd ask her where she was getting it she'd be like "IVE GOT SITES, IM ON THE DARK WEB READING THESE THINGS THAT ARE BEING PUT IN MOTION NOW!"
and we were like "lol dark web... so a facebook page with dark mode enabled" lol
Futures prices tend to be a little higher than market rate, as they've got a risk adjustment built in. The guy selling the contract assumes a certain amount of risk to meet the order, particularly when demand exceeds supply.
he just responded with a vague “from my investment news sources” lol okay dad
Putting on my DOW 40,000 cap and my 🤡 makeup
Question: Did domestic producers ramp down during the pandemic when the price of oil went negative? I'm wondering if part of this recent price spike is because it takes time for the frackers to wind down and wind back up production. I think I remember reading that fracking is only profitable at a certain price and that it could take a while to get things back up if they've been shut down.
Question: Did domestic producers ramp down during the pandemic when the price of oil went negative?
As best they could. Its not easy to shut down an "active" well, which is what forced prices negative in the first place. But we basically killed the exploration industry - I've got friends at Schlumberger who can attest to as much when they watched whole divisions get shuttered overnight. Deep sea drilling projects were abandoned in droves. The Balkan Reserves were just about abandoned.
I think I remember reading that fracking is only profitable at a certain price and that it could take a while to get things back up if they’ve been shut down.
The natural gas boom has heavily displaced coal fired power-plants, particularly in states like Texas where you can just throw up a plant, tie it to the grid, and immediately start selling onto the wholesale market. So while there's definitely a price point below which frakking isn't profitable, we're not about it hit it with electricity in steadily increasing demand. But natural gas wells produce a host of different products, including some amount of liquid gasoline. The demand for power plant fuel creates a certain natural subsidy for this liquid gas as a consequence.
You might be thinking of shale drilling. And that price point for production is significantly higher. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $70-80/bbl. But they've also got a distribution problem (not enough trains and pipelines) that the energy crash didn't do anything to fix.
Good info. So what's your sense of how transitory the fuel price increase is? I went through and checked the weights of the CPI and the biggest contributor to the 8.5% figure was gas for cars at 2%.
Honestly no idea. Domestically, there's no reserve shortage. But after the price plunged years back and COVID demand shock nearly killed the industry, I imagine the big players will be more conservative in how they develop new wells.
This, plus the fight with Russia and rising demand in China would make me think demand will continue to outstrip supply into the foreseeable future.
Conspiracy time? Conspiracy time.
These gas prices are being raised as a tantrum, not because Exxon sees a jackpot or whatever, but in protest of Biden for not being right-wing enough. Even talking about climate change is going too far for them.
Biden will inevitably take the fall (not that he needs much help with that), and people will always associate being MARGINALLY less racist with the economy shitting itself.
Diesel is already $7 a gallon in the Bay Area and according to this thread by a commodities trader, the market will be tight for months to come with no easy solutions.
things be accelerating fast
at these prices, nothing will be accelerating at all
having lived through the GFC, it's always been in the back of my mind that shit could go tits up and gas could spike to $12USD/gal for some prolonged period. and i wanted to be able to survive that, job and grocery wise.
but i see and know all these people my age and older, with way more money and options than me, straight up choosing to form a suicide pact with cheap fuel. a guy i went to high school with, meaning he lived through this last time, guy literally lives 40 miles from his work. said he drops $15/day just on fuel. another guy i know from high school drives, on average, 85 miles per day including days off. hours in the car, in traffic, every day.
i made some flip comment about "shit's gonna be weird if it ever goes to $8 or $10/gal" and one refused to believe that the government would let that happen. i grant that no political leader wants that to happen suddenly, but would they really change the rules of our social order to stop it, especially if it just kind of crept up slowly? as far as i can tell, they're happy to let us all fork over our money so long as most of us keep showing up to work and paying our bills.
We just hit $5.50 here, up 50c from a week ago, would not be surprised to see at least $8 in a couple months at this rate
Unmanagable gas prices: When in a fit of irony, accelerationism slows something down.
