With Russia outgunning Ukraine’s artillery at an estimated 15-1 it looks like the main tool for halting Russia’s advance is about to start running at marginal effectiveness. Ukraine’s main industrial hubs are either already occupied, have incredibly difficult issues with supply lines, or have sustained physical damage, and artillery has been one of Ukraine’s most effective tools at slowing the Russian advance. The fact that Ukraine is simply using this ammunition faster than the west is willing to donate and faster than Ukraine’s domestic production can keep up with does not bode well for their ability to mount a meaningful defense for much longer. The last aid package passed by the US bought Ukraine only about 2 weeks worth of artillery shells.
This is a big part of why I think the US is now a paper tiger, and also incapable of effectively combatting a domestic insurgency. The US just can't produce enough stuff to win a real war anymore. If it didn't get a knock-out victory in the first couple of months, and was taking real, serious losses from a near-peer enemy, it would just run out of ammo. What even is the lead time on an F-35? If the US loses one would they ever be able to replace it?