I think a lot can and has changed since '22 - Biden's decline, worsening economy, can't blame Covid for everything, genocide/new unpopular wars, fading memory of Jan 6th hysteria - but you might well be right. I don't pretend even spend much time thinking about American electoralism, never mind be an expert in it. I'm just amazed by how thin and clumsy it is, especially when libs in my orbit are saying 'oh yeah, it's a bit much, he's bad enough already'.