multiple people in this post were implying that Russia is more likely than other countries to become socialist because they trade w / are diplomatically close to AES states, and, I’m still trying to square the circle on that one
How would you go about making such a ranking? Looking at countries in a vaccuum only? Are you defining socialism to include the moderate fascist wing aka social democracy?
I don't think Russia is particularly likely to become socialist in this generation, maybe beyond 2050 but by that point it doesn't matter. Russians still have a sizeable nostalgia for the USSR and yes sure this is not necessarily from a socialist perspective, but it is always easier to rebuild something than to start from zero.
But in a conversation where you compare all the western capitalist countries with other third world countries I don't see how France, Sweden or Brazil are any more likely to become socialist than Russia. And when we look at the third world if anything I think people on this site but the anglo socialist left in general are way, way too optimist about the third world, places like South America, realy people here tend to have pretty much no knowledge of Brazil or Argentina beyond the basic bottom lines e.g Bolsonaro is a bad fascist. Nobody realy knows how bad Lula's government realy was in terms of building the very neoliberal foundation that would turn around and fuck him, the party and the people.
Likewise places like India where it is pretty much hopeless, the Middle East is hopeless while the US and Israel continue to oppress the region.
The west is hopeless, Europe surely is hopeless, East Asia? Please the Japanese would rather jump in front of a bullet train than to stage a protest around actualy disrupting the status quo towards the left. South Korea? Only if :kim-drip-too-hard: comes roling down south with the help of some Chinese J-20s and hypersonic missiles.
The point is TL;DR Russia looks like a possible candidate only because the socialist movement worldwide is completely ineffectual and every other alternative is just as unlikely or worse.
Would I consider Russia more likely than every capitalist first world country? Certainly yes.
More likely than most third world countries? Also yes.
Is Russia itself very likely to become socialist in this or the next generation? Big fat NO.
Nobody is seriously suggesting Russia is on a path to socialism, you should ignore them if they say so, the only thing to consider is that if they are lucky there are some contributing factors in favor of it and it is still very unlikely thats all.
Are you defining socialism to include the moderate fascist wing aka social democracy?
lmao
I'm not saying western countries are more likely, but what I am saying is just being in the close sphere of china isn't a magic socialism button, I think the fact that there are residual structures from the USSR that remain is a much better argument if you were to make one, but I also think third world countries would not be any less likely than Russia, some of the biggest communist parties and movements today exist in third world countries
How would you go about making such a ranking? Looking at countries in a vaccuum only? Are you defining socialism to include the moderate fascist wing aka social democracy?
I don't think Russia is particularly likely to become socialist in this generation, maybe beyond 2050 but by that point it doesn't matter. Russians still have a sizeable nostalgia for the USSR and yes sure this is not necessarily from a socialist perspective, but it is always easier to rebuild something than to start from zero.
But in a conversation where you compare all the western capitalist countries with other third world countries I don't see how France, Sweden or Brazil are any more likely to become socialist than Russia. And when we look at the third world if anything I think people on this site but the anglo socialist left in general are way, way too optimist about the third world, places like South America, realy people here tend to have pretty much no knowledge of Brazil or Argentina beyond the basic bottom lines e.g Bolsonaro is a bad fascist. Nobody realy knows how bad Lula's government realy was in terms of building the very neoliberal foundation that would turn around and fuck him, the party and the people.
Likewise places like India where it is pretty much hopeless, the Middle East is hopeless while the US and Israel continue to oppress the region.
The west is hopeless, Europe surely is hopeless, East Asia? Please the Japanese would rather jump in front of a bullet train than to stage a protest around actualy disrupting the status quo towards the left. South Korea? Only if :kim-drip-too-hard: comes roling down south with the help of some Chinese J-20s and hypersonic missiles.
The point is TL;DR Russia looks like a possible candidate only because the socialist movement worldwide is completely ineffectual and every other alternative is just as unlikely or worse.
Would I consider Russia more likely than every capitalist first world country? Certainly yes.
More likely than most third world countries? Also yes.
Is Russia itself very likely to become socialist in this or the next generation? Big fat NO.
Nobody is seriously suggesting Russia is on a path to socialism, you should ignore them if they say so, the only thing to consider is that if they are lucky there are some contributing factors in favor of it and it is still very unlikely thats all.
I wouldn't personally
lmao
I'm not saying western countries are more likely, but what I am saying is just being in the close sphere of china isn't a magic socialism button, I think the fact that there are residual structures from the USSR that remain is a much better argument if you were to make one, but I also think third world countries would not be any less likely than Russia, some of the biggest communist parties and movements today exist in third world countries