People miss this for some reason, but Biden had a shitload of advantages in 2020 and still barely won. The pandemic meant that 1) campaigning was held at a minimum, meaning Trump had less opportunity to rile people up and Biden's corpse only needed to be propped up in front of a screen and 2) that Donny needed to do marginally better than let a million people die, which he failed to do. Despite all that Biden won the electoral college with ~44k votes.

4 years later, he also botched the Covid response, people's conditions continued getting worse, he started a shit proxy war and he's allowing the best recorded genocide in history to resume. Polling at this point last time gave Biden +5, not it's Trump +1. All that considered, I don't see how Trump could lose.