Plus everyone is so scared about what Trump might do as opposed to what Biden is doing, which is a genocide. Hell, he's probably won over some people from the right for his unwavering support for Israel.
It's incredible to me that Biden won the most votes out of any president in this country's history. He had a historic, record-smashing win. And he fucked it all up so badly that he has a very good chance of losing to the same opponent in the rematch. That's how horribly he's fucked everything up. He got into office and immediately started making everything worse, so much so that people are either nostalgic for the Orange Man or are so apathetic that they won't bother.
It's going to be a fascinating series of results. My shaky idea is that Trump will win, because most of everyone under the age of 30 or so is just going to stay home and they weren't likely to vote for Trump anyway.
I don’t think Palestine is going to be as big a contributing factor to Biden losing if he does. The man is just hated by the general public. It’s really a toss-up at this point as to who wins but I think it will be close either way.
The thing about young people is that they aren't important electorally because of their vote. They don't vote as much. But they are very important for their free labor in Democratic campaigns. They bring out the olds. And they are extremely, extremely demobilized this year.
i've come to feel that the power of nationalism is that there is a hard limit to how much increased awareness of geopolitical realities can change peoples' minds. like, someone, maybe even the average american, can fully comprehend and believe that an entire people is being massacred by a US ally with weapons given to them by the US, and support it. there's no moment of disillusionment, because they aren't supporting the abstract tenets of some ideal of the nation, but the nation per se. they say "my country, right or wrong" and they mean it 100%.
"I'll never apologize for the United States of America - ever. I don't care what the facts are."
It's perfectly possible to be racist and still not on board with genocide. Also just the general vibe is bad for Biden. People wanted a return to normalcy after trump/COVID and if anything the world has gotten more bizarre. Personally I am somewhat nostalgic for the trump years, the last 4 years have been the worst of my life and I'm surely not the only one. Not that that should have anything to do with who is president but also people are even dumber about politics than they are in general
It's all dependent on swing states. The news is gonna make it out to be some big nationwide battle but the reality is it's gonna come down to how ignorant people in like 5 states are.
To really emphasis this:
The tight races in the trio of states had a big electoral impact. As NPR's Domenico Montanaro has put it, "just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College."
Of course, Trump is no stranger to narrow victories. He won the 2016 election thanks to just under 80,000 combined votes in three of those six key states.
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency
Palestine in and of itself won’t sink him. However, if you add in inflation hitting the essentials hard and the housing market going into unobtainium territory, that will be enough to get a second Trump term.
Before on their way to cast their ballot for the candidate who won the majority of votes in their state, the electors will get a visit from mysterious men dressed in black and be shown never-before-seen footage of the JFK assassination from a strange vantage point. After the film ends and the lights go back up, the mysterious men dressed in black will say three words:
"Vote for Biden."
If the average voter hates non whites wouldn't they vote for Donald who "both sides"ed a literal nazi rally? What trump might do is spend money to do genocide at home instead of wasting it on them good or nothing isralies which will get more of those non-white hating folk on his side.
Trump is a literal moron who's only as smart as the last guy he talked to, classic Joe Rogan brain, while Biden is a much more stable pick for capitalism. I know it seems like the hogs are winning but I feel like they're a really loud minority and american capitalism doesn't want another 4 years of Trump.
You mean, the money is going to start flowing in from mysterious places into ads and door knocking and messaging?
i don't know at this point, i really don't. i struggle to remember a time when both parties were so openly hostile to the very notion of progress and refuse to even pretend that popular democratic will matters.
Palestine in and of itself won’t sink him. However, if you add in inflation hitting the essentials hard and the housing market going into unobtainium territory, that will be enough to get a second Trump term.
People will also conflate high prices and military spending. It's the ol' "we have money for war but cereal is $8 a box?"
If Biden wins I hope he at least dies in office or something.
People miss this for some reason, but Biden had a shitload of advantages in 2020 and still barely won. The pandemic meant that 1) campaigning was held at a minimum, meaning Trump had less opportunity to rile people up and Biden's corpse only needed to be propped up in front of a screen and 2) that Donny needed to do marginally better than let a million people die, which he failed to do. Despite all that Biden won the electoral college with ~44k votes.
4 years later, he also botched the Covid response, people's conditions continued getting worse, he started a shit proxy war and he's allowing the best recorded genocide in history to resume. Polling at this point last time gave Biden +5, not it's Trump +1. All that considered, I don't see how Trump could lose.
Democrats are roasting Republicans in special elections everywhere, which is where the most politically engaged voters show up. This might indicate that as the country tunes in to the election, Biden will gain. Democrats have had a massive advantage since the Dobbs decision, and even Biden's shittiness might not overcome it.
I do think he'll narrowly win ultimately, assuming he lives, but it's not like it really matters. It will probably personally affect those of us in the US one way or another, but neither are going to do anything about 9/11 every day.
. Voting for 
