Looks like the Russian retreat from northern Kherson oblast has done much to stabilize the front there, but Ukraine remains desperate for results. The rains and the mud are also posing a barrier to advances. Could go either way.

Meanwhile, Ukraine could soon attack on the Zaporozhye front, which has been accumulating troops and equipment for the last month, maybe two. Ukraine has put much deception and secrecy into this, though the Russian information gathering appears to have overcome it. It appears to be a major site to watch in the next few days and weeks. Again, I don't know which side will falter here, but given Russia's decency to retreat at the first sign of trouble, it seems very plausible we could see a similar Ukrainian advance here and let the Russian elastic defence strategy work its magic. Hopefully they're evacuating everybody out of the area.

Ukraine has been losing incredible amounts of men and equipment, and what the Pentagon is giving them - or at least claiming to give them - is almost a hilariously tiny amount at this point. In contrast, Russia's decency to retreat before Ukraine can form cauldrons around them means that they are receiving few losses in men and equipment. Apparently up near Kherson, the Russians lost only a couple broken trucks.

My thinking, and the thinking of various commentators, is that Ukraine and the West knows that they cannot win militarily, and so are trying to win by other means. These offensives are not strategically oriented - Ukrainian reserves are being pulled from the important area of the Donetsk front, especially near Bakhmut, and instead put into other fronts. These offensives are instead trying to cause tactical victories for Ukraine - no matter the cost - that look bad for the Russian government, and Putin himself. Kherson City is kind of the crown jewel here, but we've also seen inordinate resources put in to capture places like Lyman, which are of no particular military purpose.

Zelensky's decree that he would never make peace with Putin was worded that way for a reason. He did not say he'd never make peace with Russia. What Zelensky is trying to do is cause a revolt in the upper ranks of the Russian government, or perhaps the oligarchs who have suffered from the sanctions, to get Putin out of government. Ukraine and the West cannot win the war militarily, and so are attempting to win it through other means, like regime change. Apparently - I haven't been reading them - western media is increasingly drawing from despondent Russian sources rather than their traditional Ukrainian sources, as a way of displaying how "badly" this war is going for Russia, and create panic, and thus anger, among anybody sympathetic to the West that is still in Russia.

The end result of this desperation by the West and Ukraine may be false flag nuclear strikes on Ukraine, in order to try and create divisions between Russia and their geopolitical allies. Let's all hope this war ends before they get that desperate.