Tomorrow is gonna be nuts...Flurry of unconfirmed rumorsAll 14nm and below tools banned from China?All NAND/DRAM tools banned from China?All high end AI chips banned from China?High end DC CPUs like Genoa banned from China?All China fabless firms banned from EUV nodes?— Dylan Patel (@dylan522p) October 7, 2022
One of several articles on this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-supercomputers-idCAKBN2R223O
everything in the next fifty to a hundred years depends on how the chinese state reacts to becoming the global (economic) hegemon. it's out of the US's hands now. assuming everyone keeps the nukes in their pants anyway.
There's a high probability that I'm dead wrong on this, but I do see China, US, EU, and India being the big players with each of them having a slice of influence. Like a 4-way Cold War.
I think that outcome relies on NATO dissolving (or equivalent) to let the EU off the USA's leash (possible), India's domestic politics being centered on something other than exterminating muslims (no idea), and a slowing or stoppage of China's formidable momentum towards dominance in semiconductor manufacture (unlikely)
Not saying it's impossible, or even the least likely outcome, but the status quo projected forward feels like the safer bet to me
I could be overestimating the importance of semiconductors in this thing though. Biden could just be doing it out of imperial terror and spite rather than a solid strategy
I’d sooner bet on the EU reverting back to the mean of Europeans trying to kill each other over petty grudges and power/resource struggles
Being in europe I agree with this take. I don't think some in the US realise quite how shaky the EU is now. Brexit may be first in a line of dominos that ends it as contradictions tighten.
As nationalism in each state rises the EU continually weakens. Individual state nationalism and the EU are incompatible, it will need to reorganise into something federal and find a way to create an EU-wide nationalism that people support or the nationalism of each individual state will result in further splits.
There are five EU countries with declining opinions of the EU over the last 12 years, Italy (-20 points), Spain (-14), France (-11) and Slovakia (-9). All of these have been caused by the right wing movements.
Greece should be on the watchlist too but because the left is strong there and anti-EU.
Fragmentation itself will come from the nationalism in individual states in my opinion. It's the rise of the right that will cause it to fall apart. Italy would probably be the soonest to go.
I'm on the same page mostly, but their member states like France do have a pretty strong grip on Africa and Spain still holds sway in the Americas. They could be like the UK in the 20th century and hold on for a while before losing their grip entirely.
Russia need a political reform go back to communist root if they want to be global player again. Without a clear ideology that able to produce strong leader, the nation seem lost
If the most powerful Western sanctions failed to destroy Russia, nothing else can
what's funny is the sheer magnitude of people who thought sanctions would work, and quickly, somehow forgetting the last 100 years of sanctions they've had to time to build resilience to...
everything in the next fifty to a hundred years depends on how the chinese state reacts to becoming the global (economic) hegemon. it's out of the US's hands now. assuming everyone keeps the nukes in their pants anyway.
There's a high probability that I'm dead wrong on this, but I do see China, US, EU, and India being the big players with each of them having a slice of influence. Like a 4-way Cold War.
I think that outcome relies on NATO dissolving (or equivalent) to let the EU off the USA's leash (possible), India's domestic politics being centered on something other than exterminating muslims (no idea), and a slowing or stoppage of China's formidable momentum towards dominance in semiconductor manufacture (unlikely)
Not saying it's impossible, or even the least likely outcome, but the status quo projected forward feels like the safer bet to me
I could be overestimating the importance of semiconductors in this thing though. Biden could just be doing it out of imperial terror and spite rather than a solid strategy
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Being in europe I agree with this take. I don't think some in the US realise quite how shaky the EU is now. Brexit may be first in a line of dominos that ends it as contradictions tighten.
As nationalism in each state rises the EU continually weakens. Individual state nationalism and the EU are incompatible, it will need to reorganise into something federal and find a way to create an EU-wide nationalism that people support or the nationalism of each individual state will result in further splits.
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There are five EU countries with declining opinions of the EU over the last 12 years, Italy (-20 points), Spain (-14), France (-11) and Slovakia (-9). All of these have been caused by the right wing movements.
Greece should be on the watchlist too but because the left is strong there and anti-EU.
Fragmentation itself will come from the nationalism in individual states in my opinion. It's the rise of the right that will cause it to fall apart. Italy would probably be the soonest to go.
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Isn't that the book people cite to call him a genocide denier
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UK vs France nuclear war
I would have said the same last year, but the actions this year indicate they are going to cut their own throats to please the US
I'm on the same page mostly, but their member states like France do have a pretty strong grip on Africa and Spain still holds sway in the Americas. They could be like the UK in the 20th century and hold on for a while before losing their grip entirely.
uhh, forgetting someone?
:putin-wink:
:russia-cool:
Russia need a political reform go back to communist root if they want to be global player again. Without a clear ideology that able to produce strong leader, the nation seem lost
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what's funny is the sheer magnitude of people who thought sanctions would work, and quickly, somehow forgetting the last 100 years of sanctions they've had to time to build resilience to...
Not the EU anymore lol
That's just old-school Great Powers Politics.