Americans are the product of recent settler-colonialism and are at the heart of the imperial core, which is very effective at propagandizing (or killing) them. Left spaces here are usually liberal and anticommunist, hell they're even usually anti-anarchist. We tend to have:
Intransigent liberals.
Anticommunist Trots that think they're the second coming of Lenin.
Socdems/Demsocs that can't imagine organizing society any way other than the Nordic model.
An extremely small minority of MLs and ancoms. They tend to get sucked into labor organizing or mutual aid, which seem like good things but are easily coopted into the liberal hegemony here. If you organize a union with radicals, expect it to be populated by libs within 5 years. So, long-term, you'd better hope that "one more union" is helping to build revolution. Keep in mind that unions are just as likely to save American liberalism as help destroy it, though - and will be making connections with the Democratic party.
On the timetables we have, socialist revolution is very unlikely or very difficult to predict. In either case, you can't really organize for revolution in particular, just growing of the ranks and teaching theory as best you can. We desperately need more commies of any stripe except anticommunist commies, so we should find ways to get people into productive reading groups, leading such groups, and presenting a good example to others so that communist resonates as a good thing (channeling some Mao, lol).
By default, Americans will be getting "reproletarianized" soon, which is to say increasingly close to hyperexploited. This will be due to the US slowly running out of tricks to balance itself on top of the global south. Maybe we can capture that scenario to create more communists. Or maybe the disaffected will demand a return to glory and their due, knowingly on the backs of the global south. The latter is infinitely more likely than a socialist revolution in the next 30 years. And under that assumption, I organize to make more commies: so that we survive a downtown where we are outnumbered 10:1 by liberals and chuds.
I don't disagree with any of your analysis but I personally believe that the history of places like China, and of revolutions in general, show us that even the most powerful and successfully repressive of governments are only a bad winter, a drought, or a military defeat away from being overthrown.
Of course, but... replaced by what? Many revolutions don't actually change the class relationships, they just throw off the current iteration and then ideologically collapse in on themselves because the conditions weren't there to challenge the fundamentals of classes. The US has a much stronger right wing than left and if revolution happened now me and mine would just get murdered. Like in Indonesia, but there are even fewer of us and liberalism is popular within "the left", meaning they won't arm or organize. Hell, a ton, possibly majority, of anyone that would call themselves leftist here promote gun control and abhor weapons. And the military is very much on the liberal side of the equation.
The conditions for revolution are coming, but the question is: how will we navigate them? How big do we need to be to survive? How do we recruit? How do we overcome overriding, deeply ingrained anticommunism? On the current course, the two most likely outcomes are (1) the extermination of the American left by a neofascist resurge or (2) a prolonged civil war in which we lose a ton but do does everyone else, and we only stand a chance of emerging alive after decades of widespread death and political realignment by necessity. Both of these events follow a general, long economic downtown with no coherent reasons to actually subscribe to for liberals or conservatives, which is all but inevitable unless neoliberalism part 2 gets a chance to kick in (this only happens if China does, for some reason, collapse, which I don't think it will). When spending most of your wage on food returns to the norm, we will see the true expression of the cult of capital.
I will tell you this, that the majority of young working class people would sooner mutilate themselves then actually go to war.
Which means a violently enforced draft which will galvanize the more hyper exploited working class and create an insanely massive opening for rapid radicalization.
If the US has to mobilize for a losing war, that's it for the regime. Maybe fascism wins out, but I don't see it surviving. Especially because the right is on the backfoot in the domestic society sphere.
The only real hindrance to this is atomic exchange, which will also be a working class victory (although very phyrric). The ashes will need to be rebuilt and the old order will be dead.
I suppose you could talk to a billion and a half Chinese people. May e they have something to say.
Sure but how is that praxis?
One of us might slip and tell you the ancient Chinese secret of overthrowing your government.
We have thousands of years of practice you know.
Americans are the product of recent settler-colonialism and are at the heart of the imperial core, which is very effective at propagandizing (or killing) them. Left spaces here are usually liberal and anticommunist, hell they're even usually anti-anarchist. We tend to have:
Intransigent liberals.
Anticommunist Trots that think they're the second coming of Lenin.
Socdems/Demsocs that can't imagine organizing society any way other than the Nordic model.
An extremely small minority of MLs and ancoms. They tend to get sucked into labor organizing or mutual aid, which seem like good things but are easily coopted into the liberal hegemony here. If you organize a union with radicals, expect it to be populated by libs within 5 years. So, long-term, you'd better hope that "one more union" is helping to build revolution. Keep in mind that unions are just as likely to save American liberalism as help destroy it, though - and will be making connections with the Democratic party.
On the timetables we have, socialist revolution is very unlikely or very difficult to predict. In either case, you can't really organize for revolution in particular, just growing of the ranks and teaching theory as best you can. We desperately need more commies of any stripe except anticommunist commies, so we should find ways to get people into productive reading groups, leading such groups, and presenting a good example to others so that communist resonates as a good thing (channeling some Mao, lol).
By default, Americans will be getting "reproletarianized" soon, which is to say increasingly close to hyperexploited. This will be due to the US slowly running out of tricks to balance itself on top of the global south. Maybe we can capture that scenario to create more communists. Or maybe the disaffected will demand a return to glory and their due, knowingly on the backs of the global south. The latter is infinitely more likely than a socialist revolution in the next 30 years. And under that assumption, I organize to make more commies: so that we survive a downtown where we are outnumbered 10:1 by liberals and chuds.
I don't disagree with any of your analysis but I personally believe that the history of places like China, and of revolutions in general, show us that even the most powerful and successfully repressive of governments are only a bad winter, a drought, or a military defeat away from being overthrown.
I know exactly what you mean by this but the pedant in me wants to point out that we had all 3 of those things almost back to back
you also need people who hope for something better and are guided by revolutionary theory
Of course, but... replaced by what? Many revolutions don't actually change the class relationships, they just throw off the current iteration and then ideologically collapse in on themselves because the conditions weren't there to challenge the fundamentals of classes. The US has a much stronger right wing than left and if revolution happened now me and mine would just get murdered. Like in Indonesia, but there are even fewer of us and liberalism is popular within "the left", meaning they won't arm or organize. Hell, a ton, possibly majority, of anyone that would call themselves leftist here promote gun control and abhor weapons. And the military is very much on the liberal side of the equation.
The conditions for revolution are coming, but the question is: how will we navigate them? How big do we need to be to survive? How do we recruit? How do we overcome overriding, deeply ingrained anticommunism? On the current course, the two most likely outcomes are (1) the extermination of the American left by a neofascist resurge or (2) a prolonged civil war in which we lose a ton but do does everyone else, and we only stand a chance of emerging alive after decades of widespread death and political realignment by necessity. Both of these events follow a general, long economic downtown with no coherent reasons to actually subscribe to for liberals or conservatives, which is all but inevitable unless neoliberalism part 2 gets a chance to kick in (this only happens if China does, for some reason, collapse, which I don't think it will). When spending most of your wage on food returns to the norm, we will see the true expression of the cult of capital.
I will tell you this, that the majority of young working class people would sooner mutilate themselves then actually go to war.
Which means a violently enforced draft which will galvanize the more hyper exploited working class and create an insanely massive opening for rapid radicalization.
If the US has to mobilize for a losing war, that's it for the regime. Maybe fascism wins out, but I don't see it surviving. Especially because the right is on the backfoot in the domestic society sphere.
The only real hindrance to this is atomic exchange, which will also be a working class victory (although very phyrric). The ashes will need to be rebuilt and the old order will be dead.