We don't really know how Russia is doing, or at least it's hard to tell definitively. We don't really know what their goals were going in. We don't really know if there were any optional goals that they would have liked, but weren't top priorities. We don't really know what their losses look like, what expectations were, and how much they are willing to bear. We don't really know what contingencies they planned for, and how far outside of those contingencies we are, if at all. We don't really know if the broader implications of this war (Destroying a bunch of European economies? Deepening commercial ties between Russia, China, and India?) will outweigh any unexpected costs.

Hell, we don't even have a decent idea of what Ukraine's internal situation is really like. Can they make it through the winter?