There's this thing in public opinion where whatever people are mad about, they also overestimate how common it is by like a crazy amount.

Off the top of my head people think we should stop giving away so much money to poorer countries. Ask them how much of the budget goes to aid, they'll say something nuts like 20% when it's actually like 1%.

I haven't done this experiment in person but I bet I'd get a pretty ludicrous answer if we asked what percent of us are trans.

And it'd be pretty easy to debunk too. "oh you think it's 10%? So count the next ten customers to walk in. You think you typically serve a trans customer before 9am, and never noticed it?"

"......uh well maybe not 1/10. Maybe more like 1/100".

Where this is all going: you can convince a person that they are off by a crazy large amount fairly easily but you can never ever convince a person they're wrong.

Does this mean convincing people to be less enthusiastic about their wrong opinion is more viable than getting them to abandon wrong opinions?

Next time my facebook coworker screeds on the mythical girl who identifies as a cat and carries a litter box to school, I'm going to test his estimates. I bet I can't change his mind but I bet I can get him to be quieter.

  • MemesAreTheory [he/him, any]
    ·
    2 years ago

    It's called "availability bias." basically, when we are repeatedly exposed to information or recent examples of a thing, our brain over-estimates the things frequency. It's so easy to think of, there MUST be a lot of it!

    This ignores the conundrum that we're stupid meat with electricity running through it, not perfectly rational computers, so just because some thing XYZ is easy to recall absolutely does not mean XYZ is common. It could be that we just had a weird string of encounters that are otherwise largely random, it could be a media empire calling attention to XYZ (completely self aware of availability bias btw), it could be that XYZ that are 'outside the ordinary' by nature just stick out in our minds. No matter the cause for our easy recall, it does nothing to affect the actual numbers of XYZ in the world. It requires conscious awareness and correction of this bias to compensate for it, but it and many others just seem like built in patterns of reasoning or heuristics our brain can't help itself but make.

    Teaching critical thinking and encouraging others to confront and compensate for biases/heuristics/just sloppy thinking is very important in literally every regard, but especially politically. Finding a way to introduce these lessons is something you should definitely do!

    • kristina [she/her]
      ·
      2 years ago

      stupid meat with electricity running through it,

      Cyberpunk :CommiePOGGERS:

      • Des [she/her, they/them]
        ·
        2 years ago

        unironically the best use for a cyber implant in future communism is to have an AI fact checker/leaning module with instant on demand brain access

        • barrbaric [he/him]
          ·
          2 years ago

          We have that now, it's called a smartphone, the only problem is that the fact checker is programmed to lie to you.

    • gaycomputeruser [she/her]
      ·
      2 years ago

      We as humans are really bad at estimates, somehow americans are even worse though.