• Zuzak [fae/faer, she/her]
    ·
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    I do have to wonder about that poll, like, if you take the average of responses, then it'd be very difficult to get anywhere near 1% or 99%. Like if the correct number is 1% and you ask 100 people and 95 say 1% but the other 5% say like 90%, then the average would be 5.45%. A small number of people being really misinformed or trolling can have a really big effect if you're looking at extremes like that, and that could explain why the estimates are way higher when the answer is a low number and way lower when the answer is a high number. When the answers are between like 35% and 65%, the estimates are a lot more accurate.

    I did all that analysis then scrolled down and saw that they also give the median responses and it's pretty much just as bad lmao. Maybe slightly better.