An agreement that fails to incentivize its own enforcement is textbook bad agreement writing. The message this sends is that Minsk was an excuse to kick the can down the road rather than to resolve any of the material contradictions in the region.
Both Merkel and Hollande recently revealed that Minsk II was indeed to buy time for the Ukrainians to militarize.
For all the good it did them. Absent the US just dump-trucking "military aid" over the border, the best the Ukrainians could manage was guerrilla warfare after the fact.
I don't think Putin was mistaken in delaying an invasion by nearly a decade, simply because it allowed Russians that many more years of peace, prosperity, and economic growth. If he could have punted for another ten years, that would have been the better move than a frantic invasion. If you're actually living in Europe or Russia, you're far better off not engaging in a resource-sucking humanity-obliterating war. Looking at how the US performed in Afghanistan and Iraq, its pretty clear that Russia was never going to have a "smooth" invasion of Ukraine even if they'd succeeded in completely neutralizing the bulk of their military.
I suspect that - had savvier politicians like Merkel and Hollande still been around - Putin might have had a chance to keep kicking that can. And the entire northern hemisphere would have been better for it.
An agreement that fails to incentivize its own enforcement is textbook bad agreement writing. The message this sends is that Minsk was an excuse to kick the can down the road rather than to resolve any of the material contradictions in the region.
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For all the good it did them. Absent the US just dump-trucking "military aid" over the border, the best the Ukrainians could manage was guerrilla warfare after the fact.
I don't think Putin was mistaken in delaying an invasion by nearly a decade, simply because it allowed Russians that many more years of peace, prosperity, and economic growth. If he could have punted for another ten years, that would have been the better move than a frantic invasion. If you're actually living in Europe or Russia, you're far better off not engaging in a resource-sucking humanity-obliterating war. Looking at how the US performed in Afghanistan and Iraq, its pretty clear that Russia was never going to have a "smooth" invasion of Ukraine even if they'd succeeded in completely neutralizing the bulk of their military.
I suspect that - had savvier politicians like Merkel and Hollande still been around - Putin might have had a chance to keep kicking that can. And the entire northern hemisphere would have been better for it.