I would've thought USSR would've done it by the 70s if not before Amerika, but it's been 60 years since and no one has done it so far. In fact, it's likely it'll be Amerikans who're back on the moon again before anyone else. WTF is going on here?

  • ssjmarx [he/him]
    ·
    2 years ago

    After the Yanks got it first, the Soviets took a look at their moon program and decided it wasn't worth finishing. IIRC they still didn't have a workable lander design, and their super heavy lifter was the most over-complicated design imaginable, with a dead project leader and four failed test launches in a row. The Soviets decided that their resources would be better spent building the first space station, which they did and technology from which still forms part of the core of the ISS to this day.

    Aside from the Soviets, literally every other space program has been playing catchup to the Americans since it started. Worth noting that the reason they're stuck playing catchup is that the US strictly controls any technology that could be used to make ICBMs, so every other western space program has had to reinvent the rocket (and non western ones like China and the DPRK started with purchased Soviet designs).

    Lastly, when we stopped building Saturn Vs, something rarely discussed but highly relevant began to happen - our ability to manufacture rockets of that size and complexity degraded. Every time an engineer died or retired, every factory that closed down or old computer that was made obsolete, reduced our capacity to build the moon rocket, and so it would be accurate to say that from about 1980 to today not even the US has had lunar landing capability.

    • StellarTabi [none/use name]
      ·
      2 years ago

      the Soviets took a look at their moon program and decided it wasn’t worth finishing.

      lol I feel the same way about the Mars thing, at least short-term (next 100 years) not really worth pursuing. Asteroid mining + space manufacturing are the only space race goals I recognize.

      • JoeByeThen [he/him, they/them]
        ·
        2 years ago

        Could you imagine rolling the dice on flying out to Mars in this day and age? "Management would just like you to be aware that they see themselves as the bad guys and they understand how disappointed you must be in them as they cut the funding for the department currently keeping in contact with you while you're in orbit. If you do somehow survive the trip back, please be assured that we would be happy to provide you with a glowing letter of recommendation."

      • iridaniotter [she/her]
        ·
        2 years ago

        The first moon landings required a a lot of funding in a relatively short period of time, and the US government that was funding it decided it would rather shrink the space budget than the war budget. This time (for the Artemis missions), the budget seems stable and the missions less frequent but longer. Plus, if the next-generation superheavy rockets in development (Starship, Long March 9) actually pan out then the cost should decrease further. In other words, there's been a concerted effort to make the upcoming moon missions sustainable. If this principle is applied to Mars then I could see it happening this century. I'm betting on China though. I don't think a private company can do it.

        • StellarTabi [none/use name]
          ·
          edit-2
          2 years ago

          I’m betting on China though. I don’t think a private company can do it.

          I'm betting on China, too. I just think the US being too "End of History"-brained to go out and actually do anything, especially mega projects of any kind.

    • Noven [any]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Rocket technology really peaked in 1970, the NK-33 and the F1 engine are still two of the most efficient rocket engines ever made. They're still using the last few remaining NK-33 engines for the latest Soyuz rockets iirc

    • RobnHood [she/her]
      ·
      2 years ago

      A lot of the recent advances in the American rocket industry is only possible because of the purchase of Russian engines and technology

      • ssjmarx [he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        That's part of the fallout of the moon program too, all those engines with tech American scientists thought was impossible sat in a warehouse for like thirty years before coming out and surprising everyone.