In mid-March, the WHO updated their definition of what makes COVID variants threatening and currently classifies XBB.1.5 as a "variant of interest," which means it is seen as less threatening than previous variants of concern.

Nonetheless, some virologists have argued that XBB and its close relatives are so genetically different from the very first strain of SARS-CoV-2 that it should technically be renamed a new virus, SARS-CoV-3.

"XBB.1.5 does show a growth advantage and a higher immune escape capacity, but evidence from multiple countries does not suggest that XBB and XBB.1.5 are associated with increased severity or mortality," Harris said. "In countries where the variant has driven an increase in cases, the waves are significantly smaller in scale compared to previous waves."

That's good news, but as the virus bounces between hemispheres, it may gain new mutations that allow it to infect more effectively or evade immunity. Some of our treatments, but not all, have stopped working against XBB strains. Monoclonal antibodies don't stop it, but antiviral drugs like Paxlovid and bivalent booster vaccines are still very effective.

But the combined lack of public interest in the pandemic, exemplified in victory marches from political leadership, has led to a shrinking pool of data on COVID as there is less funding afforded to tracking and research. As we've seen in previous surges, the situation can change without warning. The situation is made worse by wild animals that harbor COVID, a viral reservoir that could spill back to humanity if given the opportunity.

"The level of genomic surveillance has been dropping off, and there are also indications that funding for wastewater monitoring will be ending in some places," Dr. T. Ryan Gregory, an evolutionary and genome biologist at the University of Guelph in Canada, told Salon in an email. "We have far less information than we used to, which hampers the ability to detect and track new variants. It's also worth noting that India and China include about one-third of the world's population, and we have very little information on variants there."

Lmao I didn't realize the poop monitoring might be going away in the near future, too. Literally one of the last somewhat reliable things left, since the testing infrastructure has been completely gutted and the number of confirmed cases is a massive undercount.

:doomer: