Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
The NAFO fucks would probably go all in with :trump-anguish: and/or DeSantis because they're sufficiently scratched liberals.
:cheeto-man: turning NAFO as Biden drops them would definitely be a suitably hellworld development
I doubt it he's been pretty anti Ukraine so far and that's very in line with his America first position. More importantly Ukraine is a democrat war