Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
Ukraine is more stable than Afghanistan was. Ukraine has an actual base of support the old Afghan government barely existed outside of the capital city
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