Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
yeah I can't help but draw a connection between many of the most militant brazilian anti-communist militias dying in Ukraine and Lula coming back