Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
I think there's definitely a chunk of the US state department and maybe even the deep-state who in their imperial delirium thought that they could genuinely set off a coup within Russia by undermining support for Putin amongst the elite, seeing him as the belt-buckle holding together a rotting carcass of oligarchs.
Which would tell you that they don't actually understand Russia very well, whether it's the average Russian or the ruling class.
At the same time I don't think the US state is insane. They'd rather trade-off some losses which might be embarassing in the short-run, if it ensures a broader success of keeping a leash on the Europeans. If they have a rump militarized state with a US puppet government and NATO military bases, then they might be happy having a defensive rump and potential launching-off point facing Russia. But would Russia or Belorussia accept that?
Thing is if Russia is not going to accept Ukraine, even a rump version, being part of NATO or remaining militarized, then the ball's in their court whether to accept that or not and instead just keep pushing for full demilitarization, maybe hoping that NATO will give up, which itself depends on how hawkish a desperate situation for Ukraine makes NATO, especially the US and the Poles.