Image is of Chinese FM Qin Gang and German FM Annalena Baerbock, in Berlin.
Conor Gallagher over at Naked Capitalism details the latest in EU idiocy - foreign ministers backed a more hardline position on China and are considering putting sanctions on Chinese companies that they accuse of supporting Russia. The ideological contagion of "you are either with us or against us" has, without a shadow of a doubt, taken root in the brains of European politicians despite whatever words fall out of Macron's mouth.
The obvious problem here is that China is the EU's biggest trading partner for goods, their second largest import market, and their third largest export market. China's manufacturing is equal to that of the US and Europe combined, outputting most pharmaceutical ingredients, processing most rare earths, manufacturing most solar power wafers, and leads the world in the clean energy market in general - important, as the EU has given up cheap energy from Russia. It is not impossible for the West to develop their own domestic alternatives, but it will take several years to do so, and the sanctions war may escalate independent of that timetable.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.
This week's first update is here in the comments.
This week's second update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have decent analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the warzone.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist (but still quite reactionary in terms of gender and sexuality and race, so beware). If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Another big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia's army.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
Ergodon is actually Mac. Openly saying, “I’m playing both sides, this way I’ll always come out on top.” When that’s actually supposed to be a secret.
I do think Turkey will eventually go east. They just want to make sure they can make that decision after the Black Sea is majority Russian.
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Also Libya and Subsaharan Africa in general. In Libya they support antagonistic factions, and in Africa they are security competitors.
There really is no reason for Turkiye to actually leave NATO as there's no substitute for it. While inside NATO the turks get to wage war against the interests of the greeks, the french, the russians, and so on, being a centrifuge for all sides at all times. Meanwhile BRICS and the SCO are all currently just forums for countries with conflicting interests to have a dialogue about things. Joining the SCO isn't just keeping your options open vis a vis the West, it's also a way to have a say in places where one's long time rivals do (Iran, Saudi, Russia even, it all depends on the context).
It's also important to note that Turkiye's importance towards NATO can only grow with the outcome of the Ukraine War, and grow further depending on how much much of a victory the Russians muster. Turkiye is a 'natural' marcher state for the EU and NATO. The state bureaucracies in places like Washington understand that. It's the political class that doesn't. This is just the geopolitical side. The european economies are rather invested in Turkiye itself.
Even with all the problems over the years with the US arming of Greece and denial of similar arrangements with the turks, I believe the day that Turkiye leaves NATO is only if the EU federalizes without including the turks. That would be a calamity, because if the greeks and the french have any say in it, such a state would be automatically hostile to the turks. At that point they'd need a new security arrangement stat.
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Turkey isn't trying to be the Ottoman Empire any more than Russia is trying to restore the Soviet Union. Everything is driven by current day geopolitical concerns. The Libya dispute is about sea deposits: Greece's island chains and Cyprus together claim the entire sea around Turkey's coast. The euros won't go to arbitration because odds are the precedent of the jersey islands will be used. So Turkey looks out for countries in the med that are willing to partner and recognize their claims. Meanwhile France supports Greece, and with them Egypt.
I don't think Turkey will leave NATO on their own accord. If they're leaving it will be because they forced NATO into kicking them out. But most NATO members understand the strategic importance of having Turkey in their alliance rather than out. At the same time, being in NATO gives Turkey leverage over for example Russia. There's really no reason to give up that position. Stepping out of NATO would limit Turkey's broadband to persue their interests.
Even if tensions ratchet up between Turkey and Greece for example, them both being members puts a break on further escalation. Turkey can keep pushing untill other NATO members feel forced to come to a deal to save the alliance in the face of a greater threat.
Framing what is going on in Turkey in terms of them switching from West to East (not that im saying you're framing it as such) implies the Western idea of bipolar geopolitical struggle emerging, rather than a world of multipolar competition.
Agreed on all points. But hilariously, there's no mechanism in the NATO treaty to expel a member that wants to remain.