Instead of gaining a parliamentary majority large enough to amend the Indian constitution, Modi’s BJP is now slated to lose its absolute majority, and Modi must face forming a coalition to keep his job. There are enough right wing/Hindu Nationalists aligned with Modi to form what should be a stable coalition, but it is still a massive electoral failure when most were expecting a landslide, especially given exit polling numbers. What appeared to be an unchallenged Hindu-Nationalist agenda just weeks ago has come crashing back to reality, hemorrhaging support across the board to a very different view of India’s future.
The NDA (Hindu Nationalist coalition) has faced immense, grassroots resistance to its mandate across the country from a rival coalition, I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). I.N.D.I.A is broad coalition ranging from Communists to SocDems to Regionalists and even right wing nationalists, all united by a common vision that Modi and his Hindu Nationalist agenda can not be the future of the country. In addition, this strong showing from I.N.D.I.A has been consistent across the board, and coalition members have performed well in both seat sharing and non-seat sharing arrangements. This is vital for long-term resistance to a party like BJP, which employs the strategy of being comparatively well organized, thus allowing it to field vast quantities of mid candidates and still win elections because the opposition to BJP was too divided or even more mid.
My personal thoughts, if you happen to be interested.
Though this is great news, Modi and his potential coalition still have won the election. So where do we go from here and what does the future look like? Personally, I believe we may be looking something close to the peak performance of what the I.N.D.I.A coalition is capable of as it is currently structured and in opposition to BJP. Though this election performance was a pleasant surprise given the circumstances, the main reason BJP was able to come to such a powerful position in the first place was its organization, promises regarding a future vision of India (though BJP has not actually accomplished much), and lack of serious inspiring competition. The fact of the matter is that in the long term, to challenge BJP with a leader like Modi, you need a widely popular vision that people believe in and a leader the people believe can guide the country towards this vision. The I.N.D.I.A coalition, as it is currently structured, is purely an anti-NDA alliance. This is not a vision that can result in a stable governing coalition long enough to be effective, and being anti-something is not an effective, inspiring long term unifier (coughcough USA coughcough Democratic Party). In my opinion there are three possible futures of India: One very terrible future would be seeing our present day India continue along its current path where it slides ever deeper into right wing politics and religious extremism while the people of India suffer under intensifying capitalist exploitation. Potentially even more dangerous than the first future would be the balkanization of India along the many ethnic, tribal, religious, and ideological divisions within the country, which could result in absolutely unprecedented human suffering and exploitation. Lastly, there remains the only prosperous potential future of India I can envision, which is one where it is united under a common vision of liberation via socialism.
The crazy part is that these accusations are coming from both sides. Despite the outcome not being nearly what Modi and his allies were looking for, there are still some very big questions being raised about whether or not they have conducted election interference in their favor.
There are even accusations by very high ranking members of the INC (India National Congress aka main party leading the I.N.D.I.A coalition). Here is an accusation made by the General Secretary of Communications of the INC, who has contacted the Election Commission, so these claims should be taken pretty seriously.
I can kind of see why. Pre-election polls are one thing, but aren't exit polls pretty reliable? You're asking people who actually voted how they voted right after the fact.
A lot of controversy surrounding the exit polls situation right now is that it may have been used for stock market manipulation by BJP and the notoriously corrupt media