That seems pretty fanciful. You can’t force a country to trade in dollars when you need it’s trade more than it does and all its other trade partners are moving away from you to begin with. There’s a set of circumstances that are required to force trade at the barrel of a gun and they’re gone or going for Brics and third world.

That doesn’t even touch on the public outcry one fucking month into not getting stuff. The most propagandized people on the planet will yell to end the war with one voice, not because they hate senseless neoliberal violence, but because it’s making everything more expensive.

The only thing even slightly close to a war I see happening in the next fifteen years is some kind of small scale dust up in the scs not to actually get the Kuril Islands or protect Taiwan or something but to shock the business class and politicians into pouring enough money into production and to adopt a set of policies that lean out the nations populace to prepare for actual for realsies war at that 3/4 score date.