Officials must stay ‘keenly aware’ of challenges and prepare for ‘most extreme scenarios’, President Xi Jinping tells National Security Commission
Comments show China harbours no ‘illusions’ about fallout of US rivalry and has little hope of a lasting improvement in ties, analysts say
The New Cold War is here, folks.
:deeper-sadness:
Barring a MAD scenario, I really do think America is on the back foot here and cannot win. This cold war is very different than the last, and in my amateur opinion the deck is stacked in China's favor. The US is no longer the world's supreme economy in the aftermath of a world war. China is the "world's factory" now. The US seems increasingly unable to adapt to changing circumstances or deal with problems domestic or abroad.
Most crucially, both competing powers are pretty woven into the world economic fabric. The US and its economic allies were able to keep the USSR mostly sealed off from the bulk of the developed world economy. This had the extra effect of making it really easy to convince neutral or undecided nations to adopt policies more favorable to the capitalists in order to gain more favorable deals. Today, China is one of (if not the primary) centers of mass of the world economy. The US has been trying to sever its own links to the Chinese economy since 2018 and it's been completely unable to do so. In terms of manufacturing, China cannot be removed from global commerce. It just can't be done. So assuming the CPC continues to manage the Chinese economy competently, the PRC will avoid a USSR style economic collapse.
To add an ideological dimension to this, in the United States there is no understanding of the material conditions of the Cold War. If it gets covered (the story of history usually ends with WWII in our classrooms), it's about how capitalist USA won because we're just better and free-er than authoritarian liberal-commie Stalinism. Our leaders assume this conflict will go similarly because they have no reason to believe otherwise - that China will just collapse like the USSR, for no other reason than "that's what central planning does". They grew up in a world were the reported threat of communism just vanished with - as far as they are aware - no warning.
Yep, they grew up on a unipolar world where the US have final say on everything, so they have a sense of superiority. There’s certainly a section of US elite doesn’t like this Cold War and tell the hawk to stop, but it’s going down hill way to fast to break
This is exactly why :DaBiden: made the statement that relations will soon thaw. There is this sense that all the US needs to do is remind everyone of their preordained superiority, and they will fall in line. There are some people who actually seem to understand materialism well enough to understand the cold war. But, most of them are retired like kissenger or out of favor like clinton. Biden is literally an idiot who wants all his buds in Washington to have a good time.
It's funny when lifelong professionals are worse at material analysis than fucking Donald Trump.
Imagine spending your entire professional life in politics. You make policy decisions and go on diplomatic missions. Throughout your career both you and many of your colleagues are successful in this. And your only explanation for that success is, America good, freedom, little countries being vewy vewy good listeners. Nothing about dollar superiority or the way the military actually projects power. You might not even know the USA genocided bangladesh and indonesia and flattened laos.
The DPRK is just a rogue state that needs to be brought back into the international community.
The CIA and FBI have a colored history but help "keep america safe." But, American political stability is maintained through liberal democracy not repression.
It's genuinely terrifying to watch them fumble around with the machinery of our political system.
it’s about how capitalist USA won because we’re just better and free-er than authoritarian liberal-commie Stalinism
This is exactly what I was taught in high school US history
I remember being taught that the proliferation of the fax machine was a big part of it. Apparently the ability for the people to share information and better coordinate themselves is what led to them dissolving the government. They use the Berlin wall falling to say that the soviets hated their government, and that their protest led to the government's destruction. The implication of that teaching is that cell phones and the internet make us more free which is, of course, pure :zizek-preference:
Which is why the US want to provoke a hot war over Taipei strait instead of going with this Cold War. They know when China complete their modern military and the dual circulation economy, they’re done. It’s actually too late now but they still have small chance, but by 2027 or 2030, that’s window is close. Also the EU doesn’t really completely on board with this Cold War, this is Cold War is not about ideology, it’s about new power rising and the old one want to maintain status quo.
Yeah, and the lack of ideology is the most concerning feature. Even assuming a resounding and decisive Chinese victory in the new cold war, we're not getting global socialism. Global social democracy at best.
Global social democracy
social democracy normally functions by offshoring exploitation, so I'm not sure how it could be global
Setting up a "Leaving Omelas" situation where FALGSC is accomplished through outrageous oppression of the people of the Pitcairn Islands
Man what I’d to to have some social democracy though
Climate change will force people to do some sort of revolution
Hopefully they'll mostly be communist ones
The US never goes to war with a real rival power. It is the most fundamental part of US military doctrine.
Harm reduction is when you vote for Biden and get war with China versus voting for DeSantis/Trump and getting war with China
You gotta do what you gotta do. Man probably cares more about me getting nuked than I do.
Make fruits cascade down and their sweet aroma fill the air on the sea of apple trees at the foot of Chol Pass!
Anyone have some resources on the state of China's food security? I'm under the impression that they are quite vulnerable to a blockade currently.
https://hexbear.net/post/270074
JMO:
I've thought about this topic quite a bit. I feel like the timing is off by a decade or so. China, Inc. is a world-wide venture. For China to judge itself a success, it must be on the same or better footing as the USA, militarily, and trade-wise. This means for example, something similar to a two-major-regional contingency strategy, combined with the ability to encroach on the dollar as global monetary unit. China is well on its way to both of these ambitious goals and fighting a large scale conventional war with the USA at this point in time would set China back considerably towards its goals. I personally feel like we're going to continue to see a lot of sabre rattling from China, and we're going to struggle to compete, but we won't see war for another 5-10 years if ever. And in fact, if China can usurp the USA as the dollar equivalent, then they will be quite loath to wage war with anyone in their sphere of influence on any terms. China's goal is not military dominance, its economic dominance. If they can force Taiwan into the fold using economic forces, they will even if it means waiting 10 years. Just my two cents.
it must be on the same or better footing as the USA, militarily
The US military is a humongous inefficient machine that serves mainly to line the pockets of capital and ensure the empire's grip on the rest of the world. There is little purpose trying to equal it, at least in size, and a lot of negatives in doing so.
To add to this, the US military has not been able to make successful hypersonic missiles. China has, and that's quite a game changer. Because of that it can be reasonably argued that China is already on a better footing militarily than the US. Granted "on better footing" could mean a lot of things, like China doesn't have military bases dotting the entire globe. Similar to your point though, that can become as much a liability as an advantage for a dying empire.
There is little purpose trying to equal it, at least in size, and a lot of negatives in doing so.
Totally fair point. That gets to what I was saying that I really don't think China has a military conflict with the USA at the top of its priorities. I think China has a very specific set of economic goals that it will attempt to achieve without violence. All evidence points to this approach.
And in fact, if China can usurp the USA as the dollar equivalent
The RMB actually is not fit to replace the USD's role in this world considering China wants to keep tight controls over it. And China is clearly not trying to replace USD hegemony, just weaken it
Realistically, USD hegemony still has many, many decades left to go, and imo it's that reason that US won't start a war since they actually still have lots of juice left to go than the media and a lot of the dedollarization fans like to think
China’s goal is not military dominance, its economic dominance.
Yup. Pulling from memory here, but somewhere in Grundrisse, Marx notes that domination consists of incorporating the other nation's means of production, and that you cannot expect to dominate a nation of speculators the same way you dominate a nation of farmers.
America isn’t going to war with its #1 trade partner for at least fifteen years.
That would have been true years ago, but the rate of profit is still falling, and countries are decoupling from this abusive relationship, and now the trading partner looks mighty tasty...
And you wanna know the worst part? Since the US has a trade deficit with China, they depend on China to get them items they don't manufacture themselves. If/when the US declares a war on China, the media will start running stories about how the evil CCP is at fault for preventing vital items from reaching the civil population by closing down shipping routes
The media can run whatever stories it wants. Americans have proven more than willing to make up their own crazy bullshit and to start eating their own as soon as things start looking grim.
I'd be far less worried about China and more worried about your local communities of color.
I don’t believe that for a second. What’s the desired outcome for the us? Subjugate a nation twice it’s own size that has a history of revolution in the peoples living memory? Use war to extract favorable trade terms? I don’t see it.
The US is not in a foreign relations position as strong as they were some 30 years ago. And their foreign position also directly impacts their economic position.
The neoliberal model of the "first world" has shown its limits and is rapidly declining. As the leading imperial power in the world, the US essentially entered a phase that there is no way out of: they have reached the highest stage of capitalism and cannot turn back on imperialism, not even if they wanted to. They don't want to, because the money is still amazing at the top, but for how long? Profits must not only be maintained to please the bourgeoisie (which the government only exists to placate), they must always be bigger. The US realises this situation will not last forever, they're seeing the writing on the wall.
Most countries are moving towards China as a bigger trading partner than the US and the Belt and Road initiative is quickly rallying whole continents to China's side over the unpredictable, fatal USA.
Even if the US wanted to offer the same deals China is offering to these countries (in regards to loans for example, or infrastructure project), they couldn't. We -- the imperial core -- couldn't. Our whole system is built on the exploitation of these places.
Now, one thing the USA does (we know all of this and the above because it's been the M.O. for decades now) is to get the media to run hit pieces on countries they want to invade, but not necessarily act on it. Anti-China stories have been running in the media for several years now, and so have been anti-Iran stories. Yet the US has not attempted to invade Iran yet. I think they just like to keep these ideas in people's minds just in case they decide to sanction or send a drone. In other words, this means the war is not inevitable just because we've seen an uptick in anti-China stories in the media.
The M.O. also usually includes attempts at color revolutions, helped by that same mainstream media who works as a mouthpiece for the CIA. They tried those in China (Xinjiang, Tibet and HK) but didn't succeed. So they're starting to realise war is the only solution out of this predicament imperialism finds itself into. Doesn't mean they'll win or that they even believe they'll win, but it's all they have left. That, or accept the death of capitalism, and thus the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie, which they will never let happen as long as they can help it.
The goal is not necessarily to subjugate the whole nation, but to come out in a better position to reconsolidate their imperialist policies abroad. Forcing the end of the belt and road initiative would be a huge blow already to multipolarity. Or forcing sanctions on China, for example limiting their international reach with some specific sanctions like taking them out of the IBAN system, or forcing them to trade in US dollars. Forcing elections in China and trying to get their candidate elected, like they did in Russia with Yeltsin.
US warmongers are very good at kneecapping other countries to perpetually remain poor and subservient, that's one thing they have plenty of experience on.
That seems pretty fanciful. You can’t force a country to trade in dollars when you need it’s trade more than it does and all its other trade partners are moving away from you to begin with. There’s a set of circumstances that are required to force trade at the barrel of a gun and they’re gone or going for Brics and third world.
That doesn’t even touch on the public outcry one fucking month into not getting stuff. The most propagandized people on the planet will yell to end the war with one voice, not because they hate senseless neoliberal violence, but because it’s making everything more expensive.
The only thing even slightly close to a war I see happening in the next fifteen years is some kind of small scale dust up in the scs not to actually get the Kuril Islands or protect Taiwan or something but to shock the business class and politicians into pouring enough money into production and to adopt a set of policies that lean out the nations populace to prepare for actual for realsies war at that 3/4 score date.
My recollection is iffy, but I swear I read something posted here about how the US military relies on China for primers in certain ammo cartridges or something? Our level of dependence on Chinese production is staggering though, it's hard to picture what such a war would look like.
