You've packed in a whole lot of assumptions there. You assume they're even looking for radio and don't have some other means of detecting life. You're also assuming they or we are very rare, maybe there's both lots of aliens and lots of undeveloped civilizations like ours. Maybe they have hyperdrive and can zap from one end of the galaxy to the other quickly.
I think we have too many unknown unknowns in our models of the universe to assume this or that about alien life.
Ironically you've packed in more assumptions, seemingly based on things that are currently pure Sci-Fi.
All I'm saying is that intelligent life is likely rare enough that there won't be any within easy reach of us. There are 200 billion stars in our galaxy, it's likely we share it with someone. But the galaxy is 105,000 light years across, and our bubble, radio or otherwise, is only 218 light years. The likelihood of them finding us among 200 billion systems when we are, as far as we know, completely unobservable to anything but our closest possible neighbors, is astronomically tiny.
Anyone with sufficiently advanced technology to not only find us, but get to us, is advanced enough to do so without leaving evidence of having been here.
Anyone with sufficiently advanced technology to not only find us, but get to us, is advanced enough to do so without leaving evidence of having been here.
True, they might not care if we see them tho, or maybe they want to be seen to an extent. What I'm saying is no assumption is really better than the other because the possibility space is huge and we don't really have a solid idea what's more and less likely.
You've packed in a whole lot of assumptions there. You assume they're even looking for radio and don't have some other means of detecting life. You're also assuming they or we are very rare, maybe there's both lots of aliens and lots of undeveloped civilizations like ours. Maybe they have hyperdrive and can zap from one end of the galaxy to the other quickly.
I think we have too many unknown unknowns in our models of the universe to assume this or that about alien life.
Ironically you've packed in more assumptions, seemingly based on things that are currently pure Sci-Fi.
All I'm saying is that intelligent life is likely rare enough that there won't be any within easy reach of us. There are 200 billion stars in our galaxy, it's likely we share it with someone. But the galaxy is 105,000 light years across, and our bubble, radio or otherwise, is only 218 light years. The likelihood of them finding us among 200 billion systems when we are, as far as we know, completely unobservable to anything but our closest possible neighbors, is astronomically tiny.
Anyone with sufficiently advanced technology to not only find us, but get to us, is advanced enough to do so without leaving evidence of having been here.
True, they might not care if we see them tho, or maybe they want to be seen to an extent. What I'm saying is no assumption is really better than the other because the possibility space is huge and we don't really have a solid idea what's more and less likely.