This poll is wild. Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
https://subium.com/profile/rickywlmsbong.bsky.social/post/3kvcydtkdos2q
Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May | Fox News
a few things on this:
-don't underestimate Normal Whites - they will vote for biden over trump. they are not as loud as MTG chuds but there are more of them than the most rabid chuds. Normal Whites do not really give a shit about trans bathrooms, child sacrifice and retvrning to tradition. those are things for internet people with brain poisoning.
-the american electorate literally does not give a flying fuck about foreign policy or the rest of the world. biden's failures in project ukraine, genocide in gaza, the humiliation of the fall of kabul in 2021 - none of that means literally anything to the electorate at large. people like to think that maybe dubya was voted out over iraq, but that absolutely is not true, his problem was the economy (stupid). do not make the mistake of thinking that american voters give even the slightest bit of a shit about foreign policy. it is a distant number 15 on priority lists compared to the economy, immigration, etc.
-related to the above, for corporate interests, homeowners, people who own stocks the economy is doing fine. the line has gone up a lot under biden, especially recently. yes these gains are not evenly shared among the populace, but the people who gain them are far more likely to vote than poors anyway.
Yeah, I've been thinking this since 2022. I can see a situation where Biden wins, but I think it depends on how weird the GOP gets in the general election. I still think it is the GOP's to lose.
I think it's 60/40 in favour of Biden. Trump isn't new anymore and he's proven to be a loser. I don't feel strongly about this prediction though. I don't spend time looking at polls anymore.
Dubya wasn't voted out. He got 2 terms. Or am I misunderstanding what you were getting at there?
Maybe they messed up the history, or they're indicating Bush stole the second election.