The most effective attacks on Hillary were over NAFTA, voting for the Iraq war, and a general sense of her entitlement and criminality, and Trump still lost the popular vote. The electoral college advantage Trump had in 2016 has almost certainly been erased by the Dobbs decision, as the 2022 midterms showed. I'm not saying it's 100% that Kamala will win, but 2016 isn't necessarily a guide here.